Is AI coming to your job? If so, when?
Unfortunately, there are no clear answers to these questions. Technology evolves in unpredictable ways. But a paper published last month by three academics — Princeton’s Edward W. Felton, the University of Pennsylvania’s Manav Raj and New York University’s Robert Simmons — provides important insight into artificial intelligence, at least as we know it now.
The table below provides an example of their analysis of professions related to art, design, entertainment, sports and media.
Higher exposure does not mean these workers will be replaced by machines. In some areas, artificial intelligence can provide workers with a productivity boost. In others, it could lead to automation and job losses. For example, while people in telemarketing are clearly exposed to chatbots, lawyers can use artificial intelligence to help them speed up their work and get more done.
Now that you understand how this works, let’s take a look at how artificial intelligence can impact your own career.
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Most jobs will be affected – but not to the same extent
A recent study by the OpenAI researchers behind ChatGPT found that 80 percent of the US workforce estimates that at least 10 percent of their work-related activities are affected by language models. The researchers found that at least one in five daily tasks are affected by artificial intelligence. In some cases, employees need to learn new software that uses artificial intelligence to speed up their work and increase their productivity. Other jobs may disappear completely.
Jobs that were previously done with the help of computers may see more change. High-skill occupations such as engineering, software development, astronomy, and law are likely to experience more change than average.
How long until machines are delivered?
Most researchers are hesitant to predict the speed at which artificial intelligence will be implemented. NYU’s Simmons, an associate professor of management and organizations, believes it will still take time for the results to be large. In 2019 though [Elon] Musk in 2010 Chris Urmson, who is well versed in AVs (autonomous vehicles) will be visiting the driverless Tesla fleet in 2020 (not yet), when he was 30-50 years old,” Seamans wrote to us in an email.
Although it is clear that most jobs will be affected by artificial intelligence in one way or another, these changes will not affect all workers at the same rate or at the same time. This gives us some relief to address some important questions: If technology allows one worker to do the work of five people, then who will reap the financial fallout? What role should the government play in order to distribute the wealth created in a fair way? Should we be serious about universal basic income ahead of the disruptions we now know are coming? What can we do to help people adapt, learn new skills and find new jobs? Who pays for that?
This won’t be the first time new technology has changed how we work. From light fixtures to switchboard operators to video store clerks, careers have come and gone. We fixed it.
But artificial intelligence certainly seems like a scary monster — and even some of its leading creators warn of the dangers. There is still time to tame AI. We need to slow down to give people a chance to adapt and make sure it’s a technology that benefits everyone, not just those already at the top of the food chain.