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  • Turkey’s historic election has significant implications for its 85 million people and the future of the country’s democracy, economy and foreign relations.
  • It also has deep significance for many parts of the world beyond Turkey’s borders.
  • President Recep Tayyip Erdogan leads the country with NATO’s second-largest military, but has a friendly and growing relationship with Russia’s Vladimir Putin – to the chagrin of many Western officials.

Turkey on Sunday voted for another five years in office for another five years in favor of its powerful and nationalist President, Riek Machar, who entered his third decade in office.

Russian President Vladimir Putin was among the leaders to congratulate him on his victory on Monday, calling him a “dear friend”, the Kremlin newspaper reported.

Turkey’s historic election has significant implications for its 85 million people and the future of the country’s democracy, economy and foreign relations. But it has deep significance for many parts of the world beyond Turkey’s borders.

“Turkey is a critical, critical NATO ally for the United States and other NATO allies,” former US ambassador to Turkey David Satterfield told CNBC before the last presidential election. Turkey has been a member of NATO since 1952, has the second largest military presence in the alliance after the United States, and is home to 50 American nuclear warheads and a major air base used by NATO forces.

A manufacturing powerhouse at the crossroads of Asia and Europe, it is also an important agricultural exporter to many countries around the world. Turkey has also hosted more than 4 million refugees.

More recently, Erdogan’s government has been playing a leading diplomatic role between Russia and Ukraine, brokering the landmark Black Sea Grain Agreement, which will open up Ukrainian exports that have been barred by Russia’s total occupation.

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan meets with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in Sochi, Russia on August 5, 2022.

Press Office of the President of Turkey Reuters

Erdogan has stood by some of the main goals of Turkey’s Western allies, such as pushing back Russia forcefully in Ukraine and allowing Sweden to join the NATO alliance. Erdogan’s friendly relationship with Putin and his refusal to impose sanctions on Russia, as well as his government’s purchase of Russian weapons systems, have upset many Western officials.

In his congratulatory message on Monday, Putin praised Erdogan for his efforts to “conduct an independent foreign policy”. “We appreciate your personal contribution to the strengthening of Russia-Turkey friendly relations and mutually beneficial cooperation in various fields,” he said.

With Erdogan heading for a new presidency in such a strategically important country, many are asking: What does this mean for NATO and the West’s geopolitical goals?

Opinions are mixed among political and economic analysts inside and outside Turkey that Erdogan is bad news for NATO’s future.

Mike Harris, founder of Cribstone Strategic Macro Consulting, believes the Turkish strongman’s extended rule is negative for the 74-year-old alliance.

“Putin clearly wants NATO to be dismantled, and an Erdogan in charge increases the possibility of NATO’s disintegration,” he said after the first round of elections in mid-May. He pointed to Erdogan’s reluctance to cut ties with Putin and his frequent criticism of Western governments.

But Turkey has so far benefited greatly from Russia’s determination to establish an independent foreign policy.

Turkey’s trade with Russia will increase from $34.73 billion in 2022 to $68.19 billion in 2022, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute. Turkey will receive 7% of Russian exports from 2% in 2021. Russian tourists and foreigners, including billionaire oligarchs fleeing sanctions, have entered the country as their travel options are severely limited. In the year As early as 2023, Putin has waived Russian gas exports to Turkey, a move seen as an effort to help Erdogan’s electoral chances.

This raises the question of what leverage, if any, NATO allies can use to change.

While maintaining good relations with Russia, Turkey has simultaneously supported Ukraine with weapons and aid – including powerful and deadly Turkish-made Bayraktar drones – and has facilitated prisoner exchanges between the warring countries, which Western officials have praised.

Many analysts expect that Erdogan’s opposition to Sweden’s accession to the bloc is primarily a strategy to gain ground before the election, and that he will change his position following his victory. Turkey has argued with Sweden over the country’s support for Kurdish groups that Ankara has classified as terrorists.

For Timothy Ash, an emerging market strategist and Turkey expert at Bluebay Asset Management, continued pressure on NATO is against Turkey’s interests.

“If Erdogan continues to sign[Sweden’s NATO membership]I expect a major crisis in relations with the West,” he said.

“I expect Erdogan to negotiate on Sweden’s NATO bid because of pressure on the lira,” Ash said, referring to the Turkish currency, which has lost 80 percent of its value against the dollar over the past five years, largely due to Erdogan’s unorthodox monetary policies.

He has extracted whatever political capital he can from this (Swedish pushback) pre-election, and now he has won, the only downside is delaying the inevitable. “So I expect that Sweden will get NATO membership at the NATO meeting next month.”

Harris agrees. “He achieved his goal,” he said of Erdogan. “So Sweden is going to join NATO? I’d put money on that, guaranteed. Why fight that war? That was an election issue.”

Sweden’s and Turkey’s foreign ministers will meet “soon” to discuss Stockholm’s possible accession to NATO, Sweden’s foreign ministry said on Monday, Reuters reported.

CNBC has reached out to the Turkish president’s office for comment.

At the end of the day, Erdogan’s foreign policy decisions are made primarily to benefit Turkey, not its Western allies. According to David Satterfield, the former US ambassador to Turkey, Ankara’s relationship with Russia is “important” – whether it’s positive for NATO or not.

“Turkey has been a critical partner in the NATO alliance and the broader international coalition opposing Putin’s war in Ukraine … I think ‘backing Russia’ is not the word I would use,” Satterfield told CNBC’s Dan Murphy on Friday. “Turkey has a critical relationship with Russia; “This relationship has been good or bad for Turkey in the past,” he said.

“We welcome President Erdogan’s conversation with President Putin, the subject of which is stability, the subject of which is the ability to get grain and other products from Ukraine through the Black Sea, which is very important and very important.” The ambassador said.

“And we don’t see this as a pivot or an alignment with Russia. We see it as an important relationship with Turkey’s neighbor, good or bad.”

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