In the 100th year of the republic and the 20th year of the powerful Riek Machar in power. Turkey will hold an election this Sunday (May 14).. Elections in this country are being watched around the world in Europe and Asia, as there is a wider geopolitical debate over who will rule Turkey, and Erdogan looks set to win for the first time.
Opinion polls have given the opposition camp a slight lead over the president. However, Erdogan’s campaign campaign, with the state resources and media behind him, cannot be written off.
Why the election in Turkey?
Turkey’s nearly 600 million voters vote to elect both their president and members of parliament.
The president is elected by direct vote, and the candidate who passes 50% wins. If no candidate reaches that figure, a runoff will be held on the second Sunday after the first vote. In the first round of voting, only the top two candidates will compete, and the person with the most votes will be president.
The 600-member parliament, or Grand National Assembly, is elected by proportional representation, where people vote for parties rather than individual candidates. The number of seats a party gets is proportional to the number of votes it receives. To enter parliament, a party must win 7% of the vote or be a member of a coalition.
Thanks to sweeping changes introduced by Erdogan during his last term in office, Turkey is now a presidential rather than a parliamentary democracy, and the position of prime minister has been abolished.
What are the main issues in the election?
The election is being seen as a referendum on two critical issues for the Erdogan regime – its handling of the economy and distancing the modern Turkish state from its secular and democratic foundations.
Turkey’s economy is in trouble. Inflation is around 50%, down from 85% in 2022. The currency, the lira, has depreciated 80% over the past five years. The latest A devastating earthquake It made matters worse. Part of the inflation is due to Erdogan’s refusal to raise interest on loans and the country’s central bank not standing by. And it helped Erdogan’s image of a strong leader, but now the government is focused on him with delays in earthquake aid and building codes that have exacerbated the damage.
On the second major issue, Turkey’s transition to authoritarianism, opinion is sharply divided. Erdogan wants to take Turkey and patriotic Turks to the next level, while it is the Western-worshipping elite who say democracy is dying. His loyal constituency of rural and moderate Muslims has so far agreed. However, discontent at the grand scale, divisive and incendiary rhetoric seems to be growing.
Who are the main candidates in Turkish elections?
Recep Erdogan, the current president
Standing out in the polls are Rekker Erdogan (69) and the Justice and Development Party (Adalet V Kalkinma Partisi or AKP). During his 20 years in power, Erdogan has Islamized the brutal secular republic founded by Kemal Atatürk.
The legendary warlord and statesman Atatürk shaped modern Turkey largely through the power of his personality and popularity, banning the expression of religion, giving women equal civil and political rights, and democratizing the Ottoman Sultanate. In the year Although he died in 1938, Atatürk remains Turkey’s longest-serving leader. Many believe that Erdogan, polite and popular, wants to replace him.
A major factor that brought the humble Erdogan to power was his opposition to Turkey’s strict secularism, ‘Kemalism’. Erdoğan won popularity in rural, Anatolian Turkey, when she felt she had nothing to do with the urban elite and wanted the right to practice her religion in public (wearing the hijab in public institutions is banned in Turkey, something Erdoğan overturned). In the early years, he promised the Kurdish minority the freedom to express their culture and identity.
But along with stirring feelings of identity, Erdogan has also brought economic security through security plans and massive infrastructure projects, improving the lives of the poor and middle class.
That was the first decade of his rule. Later years were marked by economic mistreatment and accusations of criminality on the one hand, and brutal crackdowns on dissidents, the press and minority groups on the other. Kurdish political leaders linked to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK, have been arrested and charged in their Kurdish homeland for using terrorist attacks to achieve its goals.
In the year A failed coup in 2016, claimed by Islamic extremists, prompted him to focus on power. In the year In 2017, a narrow referendum gave the president executive powers, such as appointing cabinet ministers, civil servants, etc.
In the current election, the candidate of the People’s Alliance is a coalition of his AKP and several smaller right-wing parties. He told voters that the West was rallying to defeat him because of his “Turkey First” agenda.
Kemal Kilidaroglu, leader of the table of six
Kemal Kilidaroglu (75) is the chairman of Turkey’s main opposition Republican Party (Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi or CHP in Turkish), founded by Atatürk. Retired civil servants, known as the ‘Table of Six’, have emerged as Erdogan’s primary challengers after six opposition parties chose him as their joint candidate.
The mild-mannered Kilıdaroğlu – nicknamed “Gandhi Kemal” in Turkish media because of his physical resemblance to Mahatma Gandhi – has positioned himself as the opposite of the embattled president, making campaign videos from his kitchen and talking about everyday issues. The president spoke about international conspiracies.
His election as the opposition candidate has been controversial, as many feel he lacks the character to stand up to Erdogan. Despite a high point in 2019, the CHP under him saw several defeats against the AKP as its candidates won mayoral elections in five major cities, including the capital Ankara and the key city of Istanbul. Mayor once).
The mayors of the two cities, Istanbul’s Ekrem Imamoglu and Ankara’s Mansur Yavash, were running in the face of common opposition.
Kilidaroglu and his allies have promised to crack down on corruption, control inflation, return to parliamentary democracy, and plan to resettle refugees in Syria. Their motto is “I promise, spring will come again”.
The five parties in this coalition are Kemant the Good Party, the conservative Islamist Felicity Party, the now-insignificant Democrat Party and Future Party, and the Democracy and Progressive Party, both founded by marginalized Erdogan aides.
The coalition has the support of the pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party (HDP). However, the HDP does not have a formal seat at the six-table, which is said to be linked to the PKK.
And why is the Turkish election so important?
Thanks to its location and great economic and military power, Turkey is the world’s concern. Turkey borders Syria and Iran, is separated from Russia and Ukraine by the Black Sea, and is surrounded by the Mediterranean Sea and the Aegean Sea. It controls the Bosphorus River, It is the only passage for Russia and Ukraine, along with other countries, to reach the Mediterranean Sea and thus most of the world by water.
For India, it is an important trading partner.
Turkey has territories in Asia and Europe, which makes it unique. It is a NATO member with the second-strongest military behind the US, but Erdogan is at odds with Russian President Vladimir Putin. For the West, Turkey is a haven between itself and the chaos of the Middle East — absorbing refugees and serving as a military base when necessary — as well as an ally as a stable democracy in an unstable region.
Under Erdogan, democracy is slipping and relations with the US and EU are crumbling. However, it remains a key ally, with the Russia-Ukraine war and its relationship with Putin strengthening its influence. If Erdogan survives this scare and returns to power, he is doubling down on his authoritarianism and widening his gap with the West. In Asia, Turkey is likely to assume greater leadership in the Muslim world, further destabilizing the otherwise stable region.
The opposition said they will work hard to ensure EU membership. Kilıdaroğlu promised a more cautious foreign policy and, in an article in The Economist, to “restore Turkey’s western orientation.”