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IZMIR, Turkey – Ankara and Stockholm will try to clear obstacles to Sweden’s NATO membership next week as pressure increases for Turkey to approve Sweden’s membership bid ahead of the alliance’s summit in mid-July.

The announcement of a new round of talks between Sweden and Turkey follows a charm offensive between NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and former Swedish Prime Minister Carl Bildt, who are politically representative of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the current Swedish government. Both attended Erdogan’s swearing-in ceremony at the weekend. Stoltenberg held a separate meeting with Erdogan, as well as the foreign and defense ministers of the new cabinet, during which they discussed the July 11-12 summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, where the two NATO members want to sit next to Sweden. Newcomer Finland as a member.

Stoltenberg said Stockholm has fulfilled its promise to solve Turkey’s security problems and strengthen cooperation against terrorism, including the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which is on the list of terrorist organizations. of Ankara, Washington and Brussels.

“President Erdoğan and I agreed today that the permanent joint operation should meet again in the week from June 12,” Stoltenberg said on Sunday, referring to the diplomatic forum established last year to answer Turkey’s request to join the two Nordic states to NATO. Although Turkey’s parliament unanimously approved Helsinki’s membership in March, the meeting, which is expected to be held at the highest level, will also include Finland.

Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristerson said he had a phone conversation with Stoltenberg earlier in the day and agreed with Stoltenberg that Sweden had done “everything possible” to solve Turkey’s security problems. “We have fulfilled our obligations, including changing our laws. The decision is now up to Ankara,” he said at a press conference in Madrid, Turkey’s Anadolu Agency reported.

NATO heavyweights such as the US, UK and Germany have also put pressure on Turkey by referring to the NATO alliance in a congratulatory message to former spy czar Hakan Fidan, the new Turkish foreign minister.

Sweden and Finland applied to become NATO members after Russia invaded Ukraine last May, abandoning their history of neutrality. But Turkey said the two aspirants must solve Ankara’s security problems to get the green light. In a tripartite memorandum, Ankara urged Stockholm and Helsinki to clamp down on groups it considers to be a threat to Turkey’s security, lift the arms embargo on Turkey, and extradite or deport more than a hundred people it calls “terror suspects” living in Turkey. Two Nordic states.

Unlike Finland, Sweden, which has laws on freedom of expression and assembly, has yet to convince Ankara that it has fulfilled its commitments; Especially when Stockholm failed to stop a Danish-Swedish far-right politician from burning a Koran in front of his face. Turkish Embassy last January.

Give the Swedes a chance

In order to prevent a new crisis in the anti-NATO and anti-Turkey demonstrations in Stockholm on June 4, Stoltenberg told Erdogan that Sweden’s ban on the protests was playing into their hands. I understand that it is difficult to see demonstrations against Turkey and NATO in Sweden… but we must remember why these demonstrations are being held. The organizers want to block Sweden from joining NATO. They want to suspend Sweden’s counter-terrorism cooperation with Turkey. And they want NATO weakened. We must not let them succeed,” he said after talks with Erdogan in Istanbul.

The head of NATO also said that Sweden has taken “significant concrete steps” to meet Turkey’s concerns, in addition to the constitutional reforms and sanctions imposed on Turkey earlier this year, and a significant new anti-terrorism law has been implemented.

Turkey’s response to the anti-NATO and anti-Turkey demonstrations in Stockholm (previously largely a chaotic statement and call), the announcement of a new forum immediately after the change of guard by the Foreign Ministry. Ambassador of Sweden) has led to cautious optimism among Turkish and foreign analysts.

Right time, right person?

Paul Levin, director of Stockholm University’s Institute of Turkish Studies, told Al-Monitor that it is time for Erdogan to show his practicality. “In Turkey, there is a new cabinet, there are no pending elections, and there is no chance that Erdogan’s position on terrorism will be seen as weak before the election,” he said. “In Sweden, the latest government anti-terrorism law has been in effect since June 1 and the first public prosecutor is expected to open a terrorism case this Friday.”

“I cautiously hope that Sweden’s accession process is now moving in the right direction,” former NATO ambassador Fatih Ceylan, who now heads the Ankara Policy Institute, told Al-Monitor on Monday. .

According to Ceylan, it will be difficult for Ankara to continue dragging its feet following Sweden’s political and legal actions. This also alienates friendly countries within NATO. My analysis is that Ankara will take a more positive view in this new period starting in the week of June 12.

Ceylan said Turkey could continue to push Sweden as a security threat once it becomes a member of the military alliance. Although NATO does not have a ‘terrorist organization list’ like the EU, it has many acquisitions. [body of regulations, measures and methods of cooperation] on counterterrorism, developed since 9/11 and updated in 2016,” he said.

“Intel chief Fidan is in the driver’s seat as Turkey’s foreign minister, boosting Sweden’s chances of joining NATO, as long as Stockholm offers Ankara some hard stuff under new anti-terror laws,” Soner Kagaptai tweeted as Fidan took on the foreign minister. The ministry of Mevlut Cavusoglu, who was in power for 8.5 years. Kagaptai Fidan said it was unlikely he wanted his first public offering to undermine Turkey’s relationship with the West.

Two conditions

At Monday’s handover ceremony, Fidan – an anonymous person who does not have a Twitter account – announced that he was honored to join the Foreign Ministry on the centennial of the Republic of Turkey and the 500th anniversary of Turkish diplomacy. “During my tenure, I will do everything I can for the unity, security and prosperity of our country … based on the ideals and values ​​- represented by our re-elected president with the strong support of our people,” he said.

Ceylan focuses on two factors leading to Vilnius. “The good thing is that Turkey has completed its ratification before mid-July, and Sweden, like Finland, will participate in NATO membership at the Vilnius meeting. The bad thing is that Turkey continues its negotiations and tries to get an 11th-hour agreement at the summit, alienating even friendly countries in NATO. Like last year’s Madrid summit. As Erdogan has played rough games in the alliance, there will be no ratification, just a declaration of intent.

Levine adds a third. “Erdogan will continue to block Sweden’s membership, which is likely to happen, especially if something radical and unexpected – like burning the Koran or the Turkish flag – happens.”

Turkey to send a battalion to Kosovo.

On Sunday, Stoltenberg thanked Erdogan for Turkey’s decision to send a commando battalion to Kosovo in response to NATO’s request for an additional 700 troops to join the peacekeeping operation.

Turkish Ministry of Defense It can affect the security and stability of the region.

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