ISTANBUL – Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan won a runoff election on Sunday, following a narrow two weeks ago. After five more years in office, Erdogan now faces many domestic challenges in a deeply divided country, from a battered economy to the pressure to return Syrian refugees to rebuilding after a devastating earthquake.
Look at the challenges ahead.
Economy: How long can Erdogan’s extraordinary policies last?
Inflation in Turkey hit a staggering 85% in October, before falling to 44% last month – although the latest figures from independent experts underline how severe the cost of living is in a country where people are still struggling to pay rent and afford housing. Basic items.
Critics blame Erdogan’s policy of keeping interest rates low to spur growth. Economists generally recommend raising prices to fight inflation.
Erdogan won the election despite the economic downturn. The election has softened the effects of inflation with public spending, experts say, including lower wages and pension increases.
“The Turkish economy is long overdue and overstretched. And I think this is when we will pay for the feast we had in the post-election period,” said Selva Demiralp, an economics professor at Istanbul’s Koç University.
Going forward, the government will need to decide whether to stay at the low level, as Erdogan has promised, to gradually hike or combine small increases with other measures. They all lead to an “inevitable slowdown” and high unemployment in the Turkish economy, according to Demirap, but the question is whether it will be a controlled slowdown or a sudden stop.
The Turkish lira fell against the dollar on Monday, even as stocks rallied.
Earthquake: Erdogan vows to rebuild – but at what cost?
Erdogan’s dramatic victory came despite criticism of the government’s slow and ineffective response to the February 6 earthquake that killed nearly 50,000 people.
Voters in nine of the 11 states affected by the earthquake supported the president, particularly in Hatay, which was hit hardest. In his victory speech, Erdogan said rebuilding efforts are a priority for his government.
The World Bank estimates that the earthquake caused $34.2 billion in “direct damage” – an amount equal to Turkey’s 2015 disaster. It is equivalent to 4% of GDP in 2021. He said that the costs of recovery and reconstruction can be increased up to two times.
Erdoğan’s two decades in power have seen significant growth in construction. While lax enforcement of building codes has been criticized as contributing to the quake’s demise, many supporters believe it has shown rebuilding is possible. But geologists and engineers have warned that a rapid construction campaign could lead to disaster.
Syrians: Erdogan under pressure to send refugees home
Erdogan is well aware of the 3.4 million Syrians who fled the country’s violence for the sake of Turkey, especially when the country is struggling with an economic recession.
In his victory speech, Erdogan said nearly 600,000 refugees had voluntarily returned to Syria, and his government was creating so-called “safe zones” in northern areas it controls. An additional million will come thanks to a joint settlement program with Qatar, Erdogan said without giving details.
But Emma Sinclair Webb of Human Rights Watch says Syria is still not safe for many refugees – and the polarized discourse in Turkey is creating a dangerous situation for them.
Rights and Freedoms: Erdogan’s Symbols to Continue Download Crack
Erdogan’s presidency has seen a crackdown on freedom of expression and increasing hostility toward minority groups: mainstream media is pro-government, internet censorship is rampant, new social media laws can limit online expression, and he has frequently targeted members of the LGBTQ community. and ethnic Kurds.
Following the failed coup attempt in 2016, Turkey blamed a US-based Muslim cleric, and the government used broad terrorism laws to imprison Kurdish politicians and members of civil society linked to the religion.
Human rights activist Sinclair Webb said Erdogan’s victory speech targeted jailed pro-Kurdish politician Selahattin Demirtas as the crowd chanted slogans against the death penalty.
He similarly used another victory speech to stir up anti-LGBTQ sentiment.
Erdogan once called the abuse of gays “inhumane” but now calls members of the LGBTQ community “persecutors”. Since 2015, the government has banned Pride parades because authorities have added discriminatory language as they try to shore up their conservative base.
Erdogan’s government has bowed to conservative groups who say Turkey’s accession to a European treaty protecting women from domestic violence promotes homosexuality.
Anti-gay rhetoric escalated during Erdogan’s campaign.
Human rights campaigner Sinclair Webb said: “Reciting it in his first victory speech is a reminder of how LGBT people are at great risk.”
Turkey’s oldest LGBTQ association Kaos GL said Erdogan’s victory would not silence them.
In a statement, the organization and others said, “Even if they promise to shut us down, once we leave, we will not go back.”
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Associated Press writer Susan Fraser contributed from Ankara, Turkey.
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