If Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan wins re-election, as he will on Sunday, it will be because of his popularity among the victims of last February’s earthquake.
Pundits predicted that Mr Erdogan’s coordinated aid campaign and revelations of lax building codes would cost survivors of the earthquake, which killed more than 50,000 people. But they remained faithful. In the first round of parliamentary elections held two weeks ago, the ruling party won 10 of the 11 states affected by the earthquake.
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Pundits predicted that earthquake victims would take their anger out on President Erdogan. You are wrong. In Turkey, political choices have led to polarized identities.
Why did voters confuse the experts’ predictions? Ultimately, the explanation may be found in Turkey’s polarization – a striking feature of Mr Erdogan’s controversial rule.
Disappointed by the results of the first round of the election, the president’s opponents, earthquake survivors, protested in support of Mr. Erdogan. It was equal to the victims.
Most importantly, most of the earthquake zone is a political territory traditionally owned by the ruling AKP party. According to political science professor Emre Erdoğan, in a polarized society like Turkey, “Political choices have turned into identity.
Meryem Eger suffered more than most mothers.
In the year
In fact, they all survived. But her husband lost his job as a driver. Her son is partially deaf. The girl still hasn’t finished high school. Today, the four live in a tent, in the hills above this southern Turkish city, where many of the homeless have fled, preferring the safety of the rocky terrain to the soft earth of the valley below.
Why did we write this?
A story focused on
Pundits predicted that earthquake victims would take their anger out on President Erdogan. You are wrong. In Turkey, political choices have led to polarized identities.
Given the problems they are facing, Ms Iger and her new neighbors are expected to vote against President Riek Machar in elections held two weeks ago. Even more earthquake survivors voted for the president than he predicted — helping to push the race into a runoff this Sunday.
Her vote drew heavy criticism from opponents of President Erdogan, and Ms Iger feels she has been unfairly targeted. “When we saw bad words about us, we felt great pain,” says Mrs. Iger. “To live through what we went through, I wish to God that no one else has to go through this.”
The blame game has served to deepen the polarization that has characterized Turkey under Mr. Erdogan since February’s earthquake killed more than 50,000 people and spread collective grief along ethnic and political lines. And it helps explain why Erdogan’s loyalists flock to Antakya Hill even after the president takes office — and despite his government’s accountability for building regulations and a botched emergency response that exacerbated the disaster.
“This is a very divided country,” said Asli Aydintasbas, a Turkey analyst at the Brookings Institution in Washington. “Erdogan’s haters see it as a story of total failure,” while his supporters buy into the “this is God-given… and Erdogan is doing his best” narrative.
In the gap between the two, great misunderstandings can arise.
Defying expectations
Political observers initially thought that Mr. Erdogan’s rule after 20 years could turn the tide by turning earthquake victims against the authorities. During presidential and parliamentary elections, polls showed Mr. Erdogan’s national support waning amid economic problems, including high inflation.
Instead, President Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) came out on top in 10 of the 11 earthquake-hit districts. In Hatay Province, capital of Antakya (once called Antioch), Mr. Erdogan fell short of a majority by just 500 percent.
At the national level, he won 49.5% to 44.9% of his rival, Kemal Kilisadaroglu, from the opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP). That made Antioch campaign territory this week.
Here is the face of AKP relief efforts. Mr Erdogan visited Antakya last Sunday and inaugurated a new hospital and container city. “Despite what they say, your kingdom is yours,” he told the crowd.
Melanie Stetson Freeman/Staff
Mr Erdogan has promised to build a house for everyone within a year – a goal that everyone wants to believe in, but which many experts say is far from realistic with hundreds of thousands still homeless.
As the recovery moves into its fourth month, Mehmet Guzelmansur, a CHP national council member in Hatay province, is guilty of making promises the AKP cannot keep. But they are attractive prospects and Mr Erdogan is a familiar face. “The people know Erdogan. “They heard that Erdogan is going to build new houses” and they believe him.
Observers say this message is conveyed in a largely state-controlled media landscape. Mr. Erdogan After a 2016 coup, he suppressed protests and changed Turkey’s form of government from a parliamentary democracy to a presidential system, placing power in the hands of the executive branch.
“The media portrays the government as an effective political party that provides relief to citizens in the region,” said Burke Eason, professor of comparative politics at Sabanci University.
It seems to work. “He’s doing everything for the South,” said Mehmet Hilmi Belge, a retired construction worker who lost his home and is now living in a container. “Container has everything I need,” he adds. “It’s much better than a tent.”
But the real explanation for why the AKP came out on top in the first round of elections in the earthquake zone is simply that much of the region remains traditional AKP territory. Emre Erdogan, a professor of political science at Istanbul’s Bilgi University, said that even today, as in the United States and Brazil, “political choices have turned into identity.”
Melanie Stetson Freeman/Staff
On the banks of the Orontes River – named after the founder of modern Turkey, who secularized the country and wanted to be closer to Europe – Mr Kilicadaroglu promised honesty to his many supporters on Tuesday after they met with utter devastation. And democracy. The fans chanted “Hope of the youth – Kilicadaroglu!” They replied.
Ayka Dal, a nursing graduate who attended the rally with her family and friends, said she wanted Islam to play a less prominent role in Turkish politics.
But their vision is starkly different from the conservative religious voters who have long formed President Erdogan’s loyalist base in slums, surrounding mountain towns and inland provinces.
Many dismissed it as a political ploy, while others took solace in the president’s claim that the earthquake was “part of destiny.” “They have a lot of stress to deal with, and maybe religion will help them,” Professor Erdogan said.
By the grace of help
The hill house of Sultan Eroglu was slightly damaged. But Mrs. Eroglu is so afraid that a new tremor could destroy it that she pitches a tent outside the family home for herself and her husband, young son and elderly father-in-law. It’s on the sidewalk from where Mrs. Egger’s tent stands.
Melanie Stetson Freeman/Staff
A deeply religious woman, Ms. Eroglu was angered by people who posted messages on social media after the first round of elections saying she would no longer support earthquake victims who voted for President Erdogan. “We are at the mercy of people who help us,” she said.
In fact, lately the women here tend to each other’s children, seeming to be forgotten; The choices are out of their minds. Mrs. Eroglu was carrying a 10-day-old baby when the earthquake struck. She is busy taking care of her 9-year-old son whose spine problem prevents him from walking properly.
As she spoke, a truck arrived to distribute diapers, baby food and food such as rice. No one seems to know or care about the politics of aid from the other side of the country.
But her vote for Mr. Erdogan is instinctive, with no full explanation beyond a belief that he is the one to protect their interests as they try to rebuild their lives. “He’s the one who helps us,” she said.
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