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ANKARA, Turkey (AP) – After gaining a strong new power in the presidential election, Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan may anger some of the positions that have angered his NATO allies. But observers predict that the country’s long-time strongman will not deviate from his policy of dealing with Russia or the West.

Erdogan won more than 52 percent of the vote in Sunday’s re-election, extending his increasingly authoritarian rule for a third decade. It now has to face rising inflation. This exacerbated the cost of living crisis and led to reconstruction following a severe earthquake It killed over 50,000 people and flattened entire cities.

In the first round of voting on May 14, Erdoğan defeated his opponent, Kemal Kilıdaroğlu, after failing to secure an outright victory.He promised to put Turkey on a more democratic path and improve its relations with the West.

A divisive populist and accomplished legend, Erdogan, who transformed Turkey’s presidency from a regime into a powerful office, won in part with the support of conservative voters. They are devoted to raising the profile of Islam in Turkey, which is based on secular principles, and shaping the country’s independent path, increasing its influence in international politics.

Before the election, Erdogan withdrew approval for Sweden’s entry into the NATO alliance – part of an effort to isolate Moscow following the failed Western invasion of Ukraine.. Erdogan has accused Sweden of being too soft on what Ankara considers to be terrorist groups, and a series of Koran burnings in Stockholm has angered his religious supporters – making his hardline stance even more popular.

With his immediate political future now secure, Erdogan may be willing to lift objections to Sweden’s membership, which would require unanimous approval. Only Turkey and Hungary in the bloc did not approve the bid.

“Turkey is signaling that it is open to some rapprochement by encouraging parliament to approve Sweden’s NATO membership,” said Jay Truesdale of Veracity Worldwide, a geopolitical risk consultancy.

This does not mean that Erdogan plans to abandon relations with Russia.

“Erdogan has successfully maintained a multi-vector foreign policy that has allowed him to maintain constructive relations with Russia, China and the entire Middle East, even if this has harmed Turkey’s relations with the West,” Truesdale said. .

That has often put Turkey in the middle of major international conflicts and debates: helping to negotiate a deal to restart Ukrainian grain exports; and preventing global food shortages, intervening militarily in the Syrian civil war, engaging in controversial gas exploration in the Mediterranean Sea, hosting millions of Syrians fleeing violence, and then repeatedly using the refugees in negotiations with its European neighbors.

Reflecting his global ambitions, Erdogan announced in his victory speech on Sunday that the world will witness the “century of Turkey” as the country celebrates its centenary this year.

Erdogan’s tendency to play both sides — such as buying Russian-made military equipment to enforce sanctions against Moscow and supplying Ukraine with drones — has often angered his allies.

But as evidenced by Western leaders who have often rushed to congratulate him, he remains concerned about his increasingly authoritarian turn – including attacks on free speech and the LGBTQ community.

In a message on Twitter, US President Joe Biden said they look forward to working together as NATO partners on bilateral issues and global challenges.

Erdogan’s government bought Russia’s S-400 air defense system and Washington kicked Turkey out of the US-led F-35 fighter jet program. Turkey is now looking to buy F-16 fighter jets.

French President Emmanuel Macron said his country and Turkey “have great challenges to face together,” including restoring peace in Europe. “With President Erdogan … we will continue to move forward.”

And in a sign that they are valued by their Western rivals, Russian President Vladimir Putin hailed Erdogan’s victory as his “neutral foreign policy”.

Those policies have helped Erdogan maintain his popularity despite major challenges at home, including an economy plagued by high inflation and a devastating earthquake that has fueled criticism of the government. In his victory speech, Erdogan said that rebuilding the cities affected by the earthquake will be his first priority.

Erdogan is likely to press ahead with recent efforts to normalize relations with Middle Eastern countries after tensions with several regional powers, including Israel, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.

In a recent television interview, Erdogan admitted that some Gulf countries have given financial aid to Turkey to help boost the country’s economy.

Strong domestic pressure to expel millions of Syrian refugees has Erdogan trying to mend fences with Syrian President Bashar Assad – after years of backing opposition fighters to oust him.

Erdogan’s government hopes that rapprochement with Assad will lead to the safe return of the refugees. Damascus, however, said Turkey should withdraw from areas in northern Syria it controls.

Observers say that the US and Europe may seek Turkey’s support on some issues, such as Sweden’s NATO membership, but that relations will be strained on other issues, such as Turkey’s accession to the European Union. Those talks stalled due to democratic backsliding under Erdogan and cannot be revived.

“Another five years of Erdogan means more of a geopolitical balancing act between Russia and the West,” writes Galip Dalai, an associate fellow at Chatham House in London. “Turkey and the West will do trade cooperation wherever[Turkey’s]interests demand it – and it will divide the relationship.”

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Bilginsoy reports from Istanbul. Sinar Kiper in Bodrum, Turkey contributed to this report.

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