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MINNEAPOLIS – Americans feel fairly bullish about the US economy. A key gauge of consumer confidence jumped to its highest level since January 2022.
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence data was 109.7 in June, up from 102.5 the month before, according to a report released Tuesday.
A recent survey by a business research and membership organization shows that consumers’ views of the present are more distant than what is likely to come in the coming months. Both the current conditions index and expectations data are up from May; However, the latest recession warning signal remains at a flashing level, the Conference Board said.
“If packed restaurants and airports aren’t enough to convince consumers that they’re feeling good right now, look at the current conditions index, which posted its best monthly gain since December 2022,” Wells Fargo economists wrote in a note Tuesday. . “Level-wise, for the past three years the index has only been higher two months for the current situation: those are June and July 2021.”
The labor market, which has eased somewhat but remains historically tight and strong, continues to inspire confidence. The share of consumers who viewed jobs as “abundant” increased from 43.3 percent to 46.8 percent.
“There was more confidence among consumers under 35 and consumers earning more than $35,000,” said Dana Peterson, chief economic officer at the Conference Board, in a statement. “However, the expectation gauge continues to signal to consumers that they expect a recession at some point in the next 6 to 12 months.”
Some of those recession fears are fading, it seems. Tuesday’s report also showed a decline in the number of consumers expecting a recession. In June, 69.3 percent of consumers said a recession was “somewhat” or “very likely.” That’s down from 73.2% in May.
Consumers indicated that their plans to buy homes and cars have slowed, and they are pulling back more on vacation plans, including domestic travel.
“This is an important indicator of future spending on services, which may be a sign that ‘revenge spending on travel’ has peaked post-pandemic and will slow down the rest of this year,” Peterson said.
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