America’s leading index fell for the 15th month in a row — and still no recession.

Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had forecast a 0.6% decline.

Key Details:- The last time the leading index declined for multiple months in a row was in 2007-08, when the US was plunged into the Great Recession.

In June, seven out of 10 indicators tracked by the nonprofit Conference Board were rejected.

A measure of current economic conditions was flat in June.

The so-called lagging index — the view in the rearview mirror — was unchanged last month, too.

Big picture: Many economists are sticking to their guns and predicting a recession by raising interest rates in the next year. The Federal Reserve has sharply increased borrowing costs to stimulate the economy and curb inflation.

The economy is still growing faster than expected, but shows little sign of a rapid slowdown. Moreover, the Fed is likely to raise interest rates in July.

look forward – Justina Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager of Business Cycle Indicators at the Conference Board, said: “The June data indicates that economic activity will slow down in the coming months.”

From the third quarter of 2023 to the first quarter of 2024, “we forecast that the U.S. economy could be in recession,” she said. “The decline may be due to the tightening of monetary policy and low government spending.”

Market response The Dow Jones Industrial Average

DJ

But the S&P 500 rose

SPX

Thursday fell on business.