Is the recession here?  Rosenberg, Gundlach, Asness weigh

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  • Is the US already in recession or is the widely expected recession still looming?
  • Wall Street experts are scratching their heads over the health of the economy and what’s to come.
  • Here’s what David Rosenberg, Jeff Gundlach, Cliff Asnes and 4 others have to say.

Wall Street is still reeling as the most anticipated recession in recent memory hits the US economy.

Some experts say it’s already here, and some expect it by the end of the year – but others don’t think it’s likely.

With the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates at 500 basis points from early 2022, one of the most talked about themes in markets and economics this year is undeniably the threat of a severe recession.

Talk of a recession has resurfaced in recent weeks as the credit crunch created by this year’s banking crisis raises concerns about the economy. Here’s what they had to say recently about the health of the U.S. economy.

David Rosenberg, president of Rosenberg Research

“Market prices in a ‘soft landing’?” tweeted Rosenberg’s head of research. Are you in for a big surprise?”

“The boy cried wolf, but the wolf appeared at the end of the story,” he added, pointing out that experts who have been warning of a looming recession will eventually be proven right.

The veteran economist hasn’t stopped short of more dire warnings about the US. “This economy is a dead man walking,” he tweeted earlier.

“You look at the United States and it looks like we’re still going from expansion to recession,” Rosenberg said. “I know it sounds very controversial to say you’re going into recession in the United States, because the lag and the volatility indicators are telling us that we’re in something new about not going down or a soft landing. We’re going. Going into a hard-landing in the second half of the year,” he added.

Jeff Gundlach, CEO of DoubleLine Capital

The billionaire investor recently told CNBC that key economic indicators “look completely on the downside,” citing trends in manufacturing and services.

“It’s clear that we’re going to be facing a recession in the near future,” Gundlach said.

Cliff Asnes, billionaire investor.

“My biggest concern is that stocks and bonds seem to be taking a very, very different view. Bonds are going up in value next year to two years with several heavy cuts. That’s a recession forecast, not a mild one. Stocks are whistling past the grave.”

Jeffrey Kleintop, Charles Schwab Chief Global Investment Strategist

“The drama of the first half of 2023 could be reduced, with possible modest returns for investors due to the cardboard box failure,” Kleintop said in a note.

“We’re referring to this phenomenon as the carton collapse, because the goods manufactured (manufacturing) and shipped (commercial) go into boxes. The demand for corrugated board, which makes most of the cardboard boxes, has also decreased. According to data from the Fiber Box Association, past economic downturns. The last recession worldwide It reminds us of the needy nature of those shadowy times that signal failure.

Goldman Sachs

Wall Street banks appear more bullish on the US economy, recently downplaying the likelihood that the US will slide into recession in the next 12 months.

This is due to two factors, the bank said in the note, including the agreement reached on the US debt ceiling and the easing of regional banking problems.

“The tail end of the debt ceiling crisis is gone,” said economist Jan Hatsius. “A bipartisan budget agreement to end the debt ceiling will only reduce spending modestly, which should leave overall fiscal pressure broadly neutral over the next two years.”

“We are more confident in our baseline estimate that bank stress will detract only a modest 0.4 percentage point from real GDP growth this year. Surveys indicate only limited strength going forward,” Hatsius said of uncertainty among small U.S. lenders.

Deutsche Bank

The U.S., spurred by the Fed’s ultra-easy monetary policy in 2020-2021, is “on track to resume its policy-driven boom-bust cycle for the first time in four decades,” Deutsche Bank’s top economists said in a research note. That created “hyperinflation and an aggressive policy response,” say Jim Reid and David Folkerts-Landau.

He added: “We thought this would take until the latter part of 2023 to materialize and we believe it will start in Q4 2023, despite the risk of a delay until H1 2024.” The coming fall, however, is expected to be “early and mild,” Reid and Folkerts-Landau continued.

“Core inflation is becoming too high for comfort and recessionary conditions may be the only way to return to the target,” he added.

DataTrek Research

“May’s job growth supports the idea that at least six to 12 months of U.S. recession has returned. In any case, we arrived on Friday after the jobs report reported the closest the U.S. economy has slipped into recession since 1980,” said Nicholas, founder of DataTrek Research. Colas cited data showing U.S. employers added 339,000 jobs in May, beating economists’ expectations of 190,000.

He added, “While economic and market conditions certainly do not appear to be normal to the pre-pandemic, the VIX is showing that they are closer than they seem.”



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