According to the report of the United Nations, the global agricultural trade will grow at a slow rate of 1.3 percent this decade
RIYADH: As demand growth in middle-income countries slows, global trade in agricultural products is expected to grow 1.3 percent annually, half of the rate recorded in the past decade, according to a United Nations report.
In the 2023-2032 vision, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development have stated that although corn, wheat and soybeans have contributed significantly to trade in the past ten years, they will experience the largest decline in annual growth.
The expansion of livestock and fish production is expected to grow at a slow rate of 1.3 percent per year over the next ten years. Poultry meat is expected to account for nearly half of all meat production growth by 2032.
According to the report, an annual growth of 1.5 percent is predicted in the next 10 years regarding milk production.
India and Pakistan will play a significant role, accounting for one-third of global milk production by 2032 and the remaining half.
However, milk production in the EU is expected to experience a slight decline due to the ongoing shift to environmentally sustainable production systems.
South and Southeast Asia are expected to continue their trend of becoming net importers in recent years, with net agricultural imports expected to increase. The region’s strong demand growth is the main driver of this forecast.
Meanwhile, sub-Saharan Africa is predicted to face a nearly doubling of trade deficits in major food commodities by 2032, largely due to faster population growth than other regions.
On the other hand, it is estimated that Latin America’s agricultural trade will expand its profits by 17 percent, and the export of agricultural products is expected to reach 40 percent by 2032.
North America is expected to remain the world’s second largest exporter of agricultural products, although its net export position may be somewhat affected by strong domestic consumption growth.
Agricultural emissions will increase by 7.5%
The report predicts that the world’s direct agricultural output will grow by 7.5 percent over the next ten years.
Livestock production is expected to contribute 80 percent of total greenhouse gas emissions.
Most of these emissions are projected to occur in middle- and low-income regions, primarily due to high levels of livestock production, which account for the highest levels of emissions.
In addition, synthetic fertilizers play a significant role in direct greenhouse gas emissions. Developments such as higher energy prices, domestic policies and market access affect global fertilizer use, which may lead to changes in their use.
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