- The Treasury Department plans to issue $170 billion in T-bills around X-date.
- The bids will end on June 1, which could be when government funds run out.
- Meanwhile, government funding has fallen below $50 billion.
The Treasury Department plans to issue about $170 billion in bills at a time when the government could run out of cash unless lawmakers raise the debt ceiling.
On Tuesday, the Treasury will sell $119 billion worth of three-month and six-month bills, with the sale ending two days later on June 1. It will also issue a $50 billion six-month monetary policy bill ending June 1. as well as.
Fears of a default have eased after lawmakers announced they had reached an agreement to lift the debt ceiling. But key conservatives are cautious, and with the deadline just days away there is little margin for error.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen reiterated this week that the government will run out of funds as of June 1.
But next week’s planned $170 billion auction of tbills may suggest the Treasury still has some wiggle room left under “surprise measures” and June 1 may not be a hard deadline.
Meanwhile, the government’s fiscal balance continues to decline. The total Treasury balance was $49.5 billion, down from $60.7 billion last Friday and $140 billion two weeks ago.
The Treasury’s general account is used to pay for debt service on government bonds — which the U.S. cannot default on — among a myriad of other expenses, such as entitlements and federal worker wages.
That money will come under pressure next week, as June 1 is also the maturity date for $117 billion in T-bills, according to Reuters.
The Treasury balance is bloated and drained every day as tax revenues come in and payments go out, making it difficult to predict exactly when the government will run out of money. Goldman Sachs analysts had earlier predicted that X-Day could fall between June 8 and 9.
If the Treasury runs out before a deal is reached, the U.S. could enter a recession, deepening an unprecedented economic crisis and triggering a global recession. JPMorgan estimates that the chance that the government will pass X-Day without a debt ceiling deal is 25% and rising.
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