In the year At the Hiroshima summit in 2023, the G7 countries stressed that global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions should peak by 2025. In addition, the G7 countries are committed to an “acceleration agenda” to reach net-zero emissions by around 2040. He urged developing economies to do so by 2050. China in 2010 Zero by 2060 and India by 2070.
However, emerging trends in climate change may not give humanity the luxury of being too late. Especially for those engaged in the agricultural sector, there may be a high cost in human life and livelihood; Every 1 degree Celsius increase in temperature compared to pre-industrial levels. India has the largest workforce (45.6 percent in 2021-22) engaged in agriculture among G20 countries. The impact of climate change may be disproportionate on India.
There is new urgency to this issue, with the World Meteorological Organization predicting that temperatures could increase from 1.1°C to 1.8°C between 2023 and 2027. At least one year above pre-industrial levels during this period. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), India will experience its fifth hottest year on record in 2022.
Against this background, that Indian agriculture faces a double dilemma. Not only does it have to feed a large population (1.42 billion in 2023 and 1.67 billion in 2050), it is struggling with increasing natural pressures. While India’s cereal output (330MT by 2022-23) provides some solace, the nutritional challenge remains.
What can Indian policy makers do? A possible answer lies in focusing on Agricultural Research, Development, Education and Extension (ARDE). According to a study by ICRIER, investing in agri-R&D yields higher returns (11.2) compared to every rupee spent on fertilizer subsidies (0.88), energy subsidies (0.79), education (0.97), or roads (1.10). Therefore, paying more attention to ARDE will help achieve higher agricultural production even in the face of climate change.
ARDE is critical to improving resource use efficiency, particularly for natural resources such as soil, water and air. Developing more heat resistant seeds is already a reality. Proper agricultural practices such as drip irrigation can result in significant water savings. Implementing such as sensor-based irrigation systems, enables automatic control, improves resource utilization efficiency. Fertilization and development of nano-fertilizers not only reduces the fertilizer subsidy, but also reduces the carbon footprint. Applying such new agricultural practices and/or products can help to use water and other natural resources more efficiently, resulting in greater output with less input, which in turn reduces GHG emissions. Research by the Borlaug Institute of South Asia (BISA) has shown that mulching not only increases soil organic carbon (SOC), but also conserves water and reduces GHG emissions.
Scaling up such trials is critical and is where one needs a large allocation of funds. Our analysis of ARDE since 2005-06 shows that, although in absolute terms, total expenditure at the end of the triennium (TE) increased from 39.6 billion ($0.91 billion) in 2008 to 163 billion ($2.2 billion) in TE 2020. Research intensity (RDE as percentage of agri-GDP) It rose from 0.55 per cent in 2005-06 to 0.70 per cent in 2010-11, before declining to 0.48 per cent in 2019-20. .
Analyzing the sectoral distribution of ARDE, there is a skewed distribution in the crop sector and its relative share has slightly increased from 75 percent to 76 percent in 2008 and TE 2020. For soil, water conservation and forestry, it was reduced from 5 percent to 2 percent. The share of animal husbandry, dairy farming and fisheries sector has decreased from 11 percent to 8 percent. This imbalance needs urgent correction, as the majority (54 percent) of GHG emissions in agriculture come from the livestock sector.
However, it is important to acknowledge that despite spending on ARDE, the overall agricultural RI is less than the target of “1 percent of Agricultural Gross Value Added (AGVA)” recommended by the Government of India and Food. And the FAO should double India’s budget allocation for ARDE to achieve this. In this case, if the Union government reduced the fertilizer subsidy, and the state governments reduced the energy subsidy, and diverted the savings to Agri-R&D, ensuring research intensity of at least 1 percent, the results would have been much better. Food and nutrition security in relation to climate change. But this will require political courage and innovative policies to ensure farmers’ incomes are increased during this phase of realignment.
For ARDE, with a significant increase in the budget, not only costs but also policies (such as fertilizer subsidies, energy subsidies, etc.) should be adjusted to meet the challenge of climate change. Animal husbandry has grown more than twice as much as fruit and vegetable cultivation in the grain and seed sector. But our policies and programs are stuck with the legacy of staple foods like rice and wheat. This needs to change to give us better nutrition and less GHG emissions.
Gulati is a Distinguished Professor and Tangraj is a Research Associate at ICRIER. Views are personal.
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