After an afternoon filled with action, just 10 games fill Monday’s MLB schedule — but that doesn’t mean the bets aren’t worth it.
Our MLB writers dug deep to find two picks for Monday, including bets for the Reds Giants and Marlins vs. Cardinals. Whether you’re looking to patch up some lackluster offense or restore a pitcher on fire, you’ve got him covered.
Read below for both of our best bets for Monday’s MLB slate — and check back tomorrow for more MLB best bets.
Monday’s MLB best bets
The team logos in the table below represent each matchup our MLB betting staff has targeted from Monday’s schedule. Click on the team logos for one of the matches below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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| Certain betting tips come from sportsbooks that offer odds as textual favourites. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically generates the best lines for each game. | ||
Giant vs. Red
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By Tony Sartori
These two teams enter this contest on opposite sides, with the San Francisco Giants riding a five-game winning streak and the Cincinnati Reds riding a four-game losing streak against the Milwaukee Brewers.
The reason for these two trends is relatively simple – the Giants are pitching well, while the Reds are struggling at the plate.
While Cincinnati is an exciting team to watch this season with a collection of up-and-coming young stars, this lineup is especially prone to cold streaks in the hitting department. In those four losses to the Brewers, the Reds were shutout three times.
Another poor hitting performance could take place against right-hander Logan Webb, who is slated to take the mound for the Giants. He is 8-7 with a 3.14 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 19 starts this season.
However, run support is certainly not guaranteed for Webb. Going into this tournament, the Giants sit in the bottom half of the league with BA and SLG a game apiece.
The reason for this double-digit seating total is that left-handed starter Brandon Williamson is slated to take the mound for Cincinnati.
I don’t believe him in the slightest, but the good news is that he’s been on a short leash lately, going three or fewer innings in two of his last three starts.
Finally, total scores of 10 or fewer have been recorded in seven of the last eight games in San Francisco and five of the last six games in Cincinnati.
Marlins vs Cardinals
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By Tanner McGrath
Do you know who is cooking now? Jesus Luzardo.
Here are the numbers from the last four starts:
- 25.2 innings
- 2 earned runs (0.70 ERA)
- 14 hit
- 35 strikeouts (37.2%)
- 5 walks (5.3%)
- 17.5% swing-strike rate
- 33.7% CSW rate
Holy fish! His fastball-slider combination is cooking batters.
It’s worth noting that one of those four starts came against St. Louis (6 IP, 0 ER, 8 K). The Cardinals are known for hitting hard against southpaws, but that may be a myth. Since June 1st, the side has a 91 wRC+.
Let’s take that analysis a step further. Combined with lefty fastballs and sliders, the Cardinals have the third-lowest xwOBA among MLB lineups this season (.298) — the only other teams with a sub-.300 mark are the keepers, Rookies and Twins.
So, at first, you might think the Cardinals’ profile looks good on Luzardo, but it’s actually the opposite.
Also, the Fish have the league’s best RBI since June 1 (3.52). How are the Cardinals going to score?
Meanwhile, the Marlins shouldn’t have trouble scoring, considering Mile Mikolas’ 4.88 protected ERA, St. Louis’ 5.48 bullpen ERA since June 1 and the Cardinals’ -20 defensive runs scored (25th in MLB this year).
It is also a strong buy-low, sell-high position. Miami needs a win after being swept by Baltimore over the weekend, with the Cardinals having won four of their last five games to clinch a shutout.
Go fish.
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