The MLB Breakdown provides data-driven analysis using FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight the most popular players in our MLB player models.
Tuesday will feature an eight-game slate starting at 1:05 p.m.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Selection
Aaron Nola ($10,400) Philadelphia Phillies (+120) at Tampa Bay Rays
Nola is in a tough spot today. The Rays are taking on the best offense in baseball this season, especially in righties and overall. However, he is also arguably the best pitcher at the plate. That makes this a critical decision point today: Do we trust good pitching to beat good pitching?
Both sets of predictions say we should. Nola leads both THE BAT and FantasyLabs predictions for the intermission and today. He doesn’t have the best Vegas numbers by any means – but given the difficulty of the game, his +120 moneyline odds and Rays 4.3-run total aren’t bad.
If we dig a little deeper, his numbers are even better. Tampa’s first five inning total sits at 2.5, the underdog. That suggests most of the damage should come in the Phillies’ bullpen, not Nola’s.
While the Nola is by no means a sleeper today, it’s expected to come with a small ownership discount by its standards. That’s another reason to watch him today because those opportunities don’t come around often — and there are no real “must play” arms today.
MLB DFS Choose a price
Kenta Mae ($7,100) Minnesota Twins (-190) vs. Kansas City Royals
As long as they don’t qualify for the “Stud Pick” category and are cheap, the rights to the Royals are the default option most days. That’s because of the Royals’ terrible 79 wRC+ with their right-handed swing and their five top-five strikeout rates.
Mada is no exception to this rule. While his numbers look dire at first glance this season — a 6.23 ERA and a staggering 23% strikeout rate — he’s actually been much better. All of his ERA projections are in the bottom four at worst, and he’s working in a small enough sample size (26 innings) that he could get back to those numbers late.
His 23% strikeout rate is also misleading, as his 12.1% swinging strikeout rate should translate to a mid-20s strikeout number. While he’s been declining the past few seasons, his career-low full-season mark to date is 24.9 percent.
All of this puts him in a great position to realize some positive changes in the worst lineup with righties in baseball today. THE BAT leads in the Pts/Saal projection.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Zach Eflin ($10,700) Tampa Bay Rays (-145) vs Philadelphia Phillies
I was surprised to see the relative ownership projections between Eflin and Nola today. Eflin and his team are popular at home, too, but he’s expected to be half as popular as Nola.
What makes it even more curious is that Eflin has the best numbers of the season with a 3.29 ERA and 25.6% strikeout rate. While his ERA is more or less in line with ERA projections, the latter numbers are all actually slightly lower. Eflin is averaging over six innings per start, an impressive number these days.
Philadelphia isn’t a particularly difficult matchup for the righties. Their 101 wRC+ is a better mark than the league average, and they also hit at a slightly higher clip than the Rays. Everything is pointing to Eflin having the best play in this game.
While it’s a bit more expensive, the $300 difference isn’t enough to warrant ownership of the Nola for GPPs. In cash games – I can see the case for trusting the prognosticators who pick Nolan, but Eflin is the superior tournament option today.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Known stack
With Lineup Builder, it’s easy to include stacks in a DFS list.
Also, don’t forget you can use our Lineup Optimizer to create up to 300 lineups for big field tournaments.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB tournament model is the Houston Astros when the rankings are created using the overall projection set:
Their game against the Rockies is in Houston, not Coors Field, but you wouldn’t know it based on their turnover totals. At 5.6 runs, the Astros are one of only two teams to average more than five runs today. Kyle Freeland ($5,600) in Houston.
Matchups against left-handers have been favorable for Houston this season. He ranks eighth in the big leagues with a 108 wRC+ against southpaws, 15th against righties. Freeland isn’t just a leftist either. He has a 4.88 ERA, which is surprisingly lower than his (ballpark adjusted) xERA and xFIP numbers.
For a rookie who has played nearly half of his games at Coors Field, that means Freeland has been lucky enough to make up his home ballpark this season. Expect that luck to run against a strong Astros lineup tonight.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items on the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to in-house MLB predictions, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his predictions alone or create comprehensive predictions in our player models.
For this example, we’ve created a 50/50 mix with THE BAT X and FantasyLabs predictions to highlight some of the standout hitters.
Nolan Arenado 3B ($5,000 DraftKings; $3,300 FanDuel) St. Louis Cardinals at Miami Marlins (Jesus Luzardo)
One of the reasons I didn’t include it Jesus Luzardo ($10,300) One of the recommended pitchers today – despite his strong projection – is the strong platoon split against several Cardinals lefties. While Luzardo is a tough matchup, as noted by our PlateIQ tool, some of the best bats on the Cardinals have historically fed on Gray Ping:
Clearly, Arenado stands out as the top option — though he’s not the only one with the best split with the southpaw. The Cardinals could be a stacked stack with Nora Luzardo in the big games today.
Tommy Fam of ($3,200 DraftKings; $3,100 FanDuel) New York Mets at Arizona Diamondbacks (Zach Davis)
I’m not sure what’s going on with Pham’s value on DraftKings. 295 season average and .892 OPS, though, is pretty cheap — with an extra nine steals for good measure.
He is pitching well today as the number two hitter for the Mets averages a solid 4.7 runs on the road. They also have a winning pitch match. Zach Davis ($5,400)Coming with an ERA of over six.
Broadly speaking, DraftKings tends to be more “accurate” in their pricing than FanDuel, but Fam is an exception. He has a 71% strikeout rate and has played well in all matchups, thanks to his strong midrange and ceiling combo.
DJ LeMahieu 1B/2B/3B ($3,100 DraftKings; $2,500 FanDuel) New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles (Kyle Gibson)
As I mentioned above, I present LeMahieu as evidence that DraftKings’ pricing algorithm is more qualitative. He is set to lead the Yankees with a 4.7-run total at home against the Orioles.
LeMahieu has underperformed this season with a .221 batting average, a good portion of that can be explained by his BABIP. At just .273, he’s a full 60 points below his career average. While that career number is slightly inflated due to his playing for the Rockies, he still averaged over .300 in his five seasons in the Bronx.
He has a strong 60% trade-in rating on FanDuel, and he’s qualified at three positions, further increasing his value. On DraftKings, he’s only listed second and third overall.
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