The MLB Breakdown provides data-driven analysis using FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight the most popular players in our MLB player models.
Friday will feature a 12-game main draw beginning at 7:05 p.m.
MLB DFS Pitcher Picks
MLB DFS Stud Selection
Shane McClanahan He’s the best pitcher on Friday’s board by a mile. The only other pitch sold in the same ballpark is – James Paxton — and he’s taking on a tough Blue Jays lineup. Toronto is 4.9 runs against Paxton, putting him out of contention.
Fortunately, McClanahan is one of the best pitchers in baseball. He’s pitched to a 2.23 ERA in his first 16 starts, and has a minuscule average of +3.23 on DraftKings. He failed to return value in just four of the matches, giving him a good combination of consistency and overturning.
McClanahan wasn’t as dominant as traditional metrics would suggest, but that shouldn’t matter much to the Mariners. Their offense this season is clean against left-handed pitching, ranking 22nd in wRC+. After all, they’ve won 26.9% of their at-bats in that division, good for the third-highest strikeout rate in the league. That doesn’t bode well for McClanahan, who averaged 10.23 strikeouts per 9 innings in his career.
Vegas is showing McClanahan a lot of love in this matchup. The Brewers are accounted for a slate-low 3.6 runs, making McClanahan the only pitcher with a mark below 4.0. He’s only a -135 favorite, but that has more to do with the Rays matchup. Brice Miller More than anything else.
Overall, McClanahan leads the board in K Prediction and opposing team totals, which is a solid combination. He’s decent, but leads all pitchers in average, ceiling and projected plus/minus at THE BAT.
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The Mets continued to roll, posting a 7-18 record in June. They have lost three of their four games at home to start the week and now head to San Francisco to start the week with the Brewers. The Giants are 17-8 in June, so this is a matchup of two teams going in opposite directions.
And so he said. Carlos Carrasco It has some appeal as an SP2 in tournaments. The Giants are a boom-and-bust matchup for right-handers this season. They ranked ninth in wRC+ in that division.
It’s not nearly the same as when Carrasco was struggling in 2023 to a 6.19 ERA and 6.22 xERA. However, he still brings an aggressive smile to the table. He’s collected nine strikeouts over the past seven games, and still has two swings and his wife’s pitch with his changeup and slider. If he can get through five innings against the Giants, there’s a chance he’ll throw five or more hits.
Carrasco surprisingly only projects to five percent ownership on this board, but his ceiling projection puts him in the top half of all pitchers in THE BAT. He ranks first in project plus/minus at just $6,000, so he’s a solid option to punctuate your lineup.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
The A’s rowing crew was no accident this season. Their starters all range from bad to terrible, and their bullpen has the worst ERA in the league by a mile. They send Louis Medina To the mound on Friday, and owns a 6.84 ERA through 48.2 innings. That said, he got a very friendly matchup against the White Sox. They rank just 27th in wRC+ against right-handers, so this is an odd place to target the A’s pitcher with some interest. Medina also averaged 8.32 strikeouts per 9 innings this season. At only $5,800, it leads all beginners in the projected plus/minus in the FantasyLabs projection suite.
Bobby Miller It has arguably the best Vegas information on the board. He is the biggest favorite of the day at -220, equaling his 4.0 opponent in indirect run totals per second. Historically, pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have averaged a plus/minus of +2.97 on FanDuel (via the Trends tool). Miller has posted an excellent 3.49 xERA in his first six MLB starts, and the Royals are one of the better matchups. They’re ranked last in wRC+ and right-handed pitchers, so this is a good spot for Miller to bounce back from two straight outings.
Freddy Peralta It’s another pitcher who has a big match on Friday. After a good start to the year, he’s taking on the Pirates, who are crashing into reality. Right-handed pitchers have fallen to 23rd in wRC+, and they’re another team that only averages 4.0 runs. He doesn’t stand out as an elite matchup for strikeout purposes, but Peralta’s 6.36 K projection still ranks second on the plate. Peralta stands out as an excellent target on FanDuel, where his $9,200 salary comes with a 92% bargain rating.
MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Known stack
With Lineup Builder, it’s easy to include stacks in a DFS list.
Also, don’t forget you can use our Lineup Optimizer to create up to 300 lineups for big field tournaments.
The highest DraftKings stack in our MLB models when generated by projected points using BAT is the Los Angeles Dodgers.
The Dodgers offense may not have the same star power as it has in years past, but it is still effective. They rank sixth in the league in wRC+ and right-handed pitchers, and fourth in runs per game.
The Dodgers are coming off a streak at Coors Field where they’ve averaged nine runs per game, and they’ll stay on the road in a streak against the Royals. They obviously won’t be benefiting from Coors Field in this series, but they’ll draw an interesting matchup against. Alec Marsh. He’ll be making his debut at age 25, and he’s not considered the most promising prospect. MLB.com ranks him No. 14 in the Royals organization, and most major projection systems project an ERA in the top four in the major leagues.
A game against the Dodgers doesn’t seem like the best way to start your career, and the Vegas Dodgers scored 5.8 runs in this game. That’s good for the second-highest mark on the slate, trailing only the Braves at 6.0.
The top of the Dodgers lineup has also posted some elite Statcast metrics and right-handers over the past 30 days (via PlateIQ ).
Max Muncy He rejoined the Dodgers lineup in Colorado after a stint in IL, and his importance cannot be overstated. He has struggled to find base hits this season, but has clubbed 18 homers in just 63 games. That leaves him with a shot at a 40-homer season, and most of the damage has come against traditional pitchers, surprisingly. Friday is in a great position to get back on the board.
Other MLB DFS Hitter picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items on the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB speculations is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his predictions alone or create comprehensive predictions in our player models.
For this example, we’ve created a 50/50 mix with THE BAT X and FantasyLabs predictions to highlight some of the standout hitters.
Spencer Torkelson 1B ($4,000 DraftKings, $3,100 FanDuel) Detroit Tigers at Colorado Rockies (Austin Gomber)
The Tigers aren’t typically an offense to target against DFS, but they have a couple of things going in their favor on Friday. The big one is that they head to Corso Field to face the Rockies. Coors Field is easily the best offensive venue in baseball, and every batter has a perfect 100 park factor. Plus, they’re taking a left-hander in Goomber, and the Tigers have been more effective against right-handers in that division. Torkelson is expected to play second in the projected lineup, and is starting to show flashes of why he was considered the top prospect in baseball. Specifically, he posted a 134 wRC+ against southpaws. Ultimately, the Tigers’ entire lineup looks low at this point, and Torkelson is one of their strongest options.
Andrew Benintendi of ($3,000 DraftKings, $2,700 FanDuel) Chicago White Sox at Oakland Athletics (Luis Medina)
While Medina has some appeal against the White Sox, their offense also has some appeal against Medina. Benintendi is expected to top the group on Friday and has had a quiet but solid season. He managed just one homer in 78 games, but posted a .284 batting average with nine steals. That gives it a pretty solid floor considering its price tag and lineup.
Gleyber Torres 2B ($5,000 DraftKings, $2,800 FanDuel) New York Yankees at St. Louis Cardinals (Matthew Liberatore)
Torres stands out as a great value on FanDuel, where his $2,800 salary comes with a 97% bargain rating. Like much of the Yankees lineup, Torres has been in a bit of a slump lately. That said, he posted two hits in the Yankees’ last outing, and their offense scored double-digit runs in back-to-back games. Maybe they’re just starting to turn the corner, and a matchup against Liberator certainly wouldn’t hurt. He’s posted a 5.60 ERA and 7.24 xERA this season, and right-handed batters have a .388 wOBA against him. Torres has historically done his best against left-handers, posting a 127 wRC+ in that division for his career. This is a strong buy low, and stacking the Yankees could be a strong contrarian option on FanDuel.
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