The MLB Breakdown provides data-driven analysis using FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight the most popular players in our MLB player models.
Friday will feature a 12-game main draw beginning at 7:05 p.m.
MLB DFS Pitcher Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
For a 12-game board, the top-level selection options are a little thin. Only two starters on DraftKings are worth more than $9,900, and neither of them have reached that level.
Kevin Gausman It’s the most expensive arm on the board at $10,300, and its Vegas credentials don’t match its price tag. He’s only a -158 favorite, and the Twins are tipped for 3.5 runs. That’s still the third-lowest mark on the board, but far from the best.
However, Gausman brings a lot of strikes to the table. He’s been one of the best strikeouts in baseball over the past four seasons, and his K/9 in 2023 is 11.57. His strikeout rate puts him in the 90th percentile, and he should be able to pile up the whiffs. The twins. They boast the second-highest number of right-handed pitchers for the year, and their projected lineup owns the third-highest split-adjusted strikeout rate over the past 12 months.
Add it all up, and Gausman leads all pitches with an 8.35K projection. No other pitcher is in Gausman’s complete strikeout range, giving him the highest ceiling on the plate by a comfortable margin. He’s expected to have a big title on Friday, but Gausman stands out as a clear upper arm.
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Grayson Rodriguez It stands out as a good value option on FanDuel, where it leads the board with a 90% bargain rating. Rodriguez has had an up-and-down start to his first full season in the big leagues, but his talent is undeniable. He entered the year ranked as the No. 22 prospect by FanGraphs, and had no problem hitting hitters in the big leagues. In his first nine starts, he has collected 10.71 strikeouts per 9 innings, and his strikeout rate puts him in the 70th percentile.
Unfortunately, Rodriguez had some major issues when batters connected. They’re hitting him hard, and he’s running around the house surrendering. His HR/FB rate sits at 23.3%, well above the MLB average. If he shows some improvement in that department, his ERA should be significantly closer to his 3.82 xFIP.
Rodriguez doesn’t match Friday against the Rangers, who rank third among right-handers in wRC+ this season. However, they have the eighth-highest strikeout rate in that division. Vegas at least shows a little respect for Rodriguez, with the Orioles listed as -125 home favorites.
Still, this game is more of a price tag than anything else, and Rodriguez has plenty of upside for his salary. He leads all pitchers in FanDuel projected plus/minus at THE BAT, and has the fourth-highest ceiling projection. It’s just Gaussman going. Freddy PeraltaAnd George Kirby In that class and all three players are at least $2,100 more expensive. Rodriguez is a great way to save some salary on a pitcher without sacrificing too much upside.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
According to Rodriguez, Hunter Brown Hoping to leapfrog the year into a big time. Unlike Rodriguez, he collected quality results out of the gate. He pitched to a 3.20 ERA and 3.08 FIP while striking out 9.95 batters per nine innings. Friday draws an excellent matchup against the A’s, which has -280 moneyline odds and a 3.3-run odds. Historically, pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have averaged +4.32 (via the Trends tool). Brown’s K prediction of 7.16 also ranks second on the board, so it checks a lot of boxes on Friday.
Brown stands out using our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy odds chart:
Alex Wood He has yet to get into a groove, pitching just 20.0 innings this season. He didn’t even pitch five full innings in his first start and struck out 75 pitches. That doesn’t make him stand out much, but Friday draws one of the best matchups against the Brewers. They have been terrible against left-handed pitchers this season, ranking 29th in wRC+ and first in strikeouts. I still don’t expect Wood to pitch more than five innings, but he has the potential to be extremely effective on the mound. He’s a solid SP2 for the races at just $6,300 on DraftKings.
Kirby has been an excellent source of value all season, posting a positive plus/minus in seven of his eight games on DraftKings. He should be able to keep up the good time with a team of light-hitting pirates. They rank just 20th in wRC+ among right-handed pitchers, and 29th in the last 30 days of the split. Their 3.2 runs average is the lowest mark on the slate, and Kirby offers some salary relief from guys like Gausman and Brown.
MLB DFS Hitter Picks
With Lineup Builder, it’s easy to include stacks in a DFS list.
Also, don’t forget you can use our Lineup Optimizer to create up to 300 lineups for big field tournaments.
The highest DraftKings stack in our MLB models when generated by projected points using BAT is the New York Mets:
Considering the Mets’ lofty expectations, they’ve had a disappointing start to the year. They have the highest payroll in baseball history but start a three-game series against the Rockies one game over .500. Colorado took two of the three against the Mets in City Field and the Mets had problems offensively and on the mound. They are 24th in team ERA and just 18th in points per game.
Still, Coors Field can cure many woes, and Vegas is showing great respect for the Mets Friday. They currently average 7.1 runs, one of the highest marks of an entire season. The Braves are second at the plate with 5.6 runs, so the Mets have a big cushion against the rest of Friday’s offense.
They are holding his right hand. Connor SieboldMaybe not good enough to be a major league starter. Last year with the Red Sox, he pitched to an 11.29 ERA in 18.1 innings, and has a 7.81 ERA for his career. He was a little better in his first year with the Rockies, but his 5.97 ERA is nothing to write home about.
The Mets’ offense is in charge. Pete AlonsoHe turned in an MVP-caliber start to the year. He leads the league with 19 homers, which is four more. Jorge Soler And Max Muncy per second. His 45 RBIs rank third in baseball, and he’s on pace for a new career high in wRC+. Alonso has come on twice in the last three games and it would be no surprise to see him put up a wall again on Friday.
If the Mets want to save a little salary, consider replacing one of their veteran pitchers with their youngsters. Francisco Alvarez He owns the top draft in THE BAT by DraftKings Plus/Minus, and getting a $3,300 cap at Coors is always attractive. After a stellar start to the year, posting a 184 wRC+ in May, he was brilliant at the plate.
Brett Batt It’s also affordable at $3,400, and is expected to hit fifth in the lineup. He’s never been quite as impressive as Alvarez, but he has four homers in 32 games and will have a chance to split with Siebold. The Mets should be the most popular stack target on this board, but there are some creative ways to target their lineup that owners should understand.
Other MLB DFS Hitter picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items on the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB speculations is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his predictions alone or create comprehensive predictions in our player models.
For this example, we’ve created a 50/50 mix with THE BAT X and FantasyLabs predictions to highlight some of the standout hitters.
Corey Dickerson of ($2,300 DraftKings, $2,000 FanDuel) Washington Nationals at Kansas City Royals (Jordan Lyles)
Saving salary is always important on the Coors Field slate, and Dickerson stands out as one of the best values using composite projections. He has the third-highest plus/minus on DraftKings, and ranks first in that category on FanDuel. Dickerson has always been able to hit righties, posting a 120 wRC+ for his career in that split, and he faces an extremely hittable right-hander in Lyles on Friday. He owns a 7.15 ERA for the season, and averages 2.22 homers per nine innings.
William Contreras C ($3,700 DraftKings, $2,800 FanDuel) Milwaukee Brewers to San Francisco Giants (Alex Wood)
While the Brewers’ struggles against southpaws are well-documented, Contreras stands out in this division. He posted a 138 wRC+ against left-handers this season, and recorded a double in 44 at-bats. Contreras has a career wRC+ of 153 vs. Wood ranks in the 10th percentile in average exit velocity, so Contreras has the potential to go a yard if he puts one up.
Adam Frazier 2B ($2,700 DraftKings, $2,700 FanDuel) Baltimore Orioles at Texas Rangers (John Gray)
Frazier was one of the better offensive secondaries in baseball two years ago, but he has a season with the Mariners in 2022. However, he is showing a resurgence in his first year with the Orioles. He has been red hot at the dish recently, posting positive Plus/DraftKings in six straight games. He has five extra-base hits in that span, and his wRC+ is up to 113 for the year. Moving forward, it will be on the positive side of the split with Gray looking like a big re-election candidate. He’s pitched to a 3.02 ERA in his first nine starts, but his 5.18 xERA is far worse.