The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Saturday features a 13-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitcher Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
It’s a relatively weak slate for stud pitching. There are some big-name arms to choose from – Aaron Nola, James Paxton, and Yu Darvish all fit the bill – but none of them stand out as particularly strong options on Saturday. Every team is implied for at least 4.1 runs, so runs figure to be plentiful.
Nola is the most expensive of the group on DraftKings, checking in at $11,000. However, he’s just $9,900 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 92%.
He also draws easily the best matchup of the bunch vs. the Pirates. Pittsburgh ranks merely 26th in wRC+ against right-handers, and they boast the 11th-highest strikeout rate. Nola’s 7.25 K Prediction is the top mark on the slate, while his 4.2-run opponent implied total is tied for the fourth lowest.
Nola hasn’t had the best season, pitching to a 4.25 ERA while striking out 8.98 batters per nine innings. Both of those marks are among the worst of his career. However, Nola has been slightly better over the second half, dropping his ERA to 3.14 and his xFIP to 2.94. Given his matchup, he seems like the most likely candidate for a big score on Saturday.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Brandon Pfaadt’s rookie season has not gone as planned. He entered the year as one of the most highly regarded pitching prospects in baseball, but he’s struggled mightily at the MLB level. He’s pitched to an 8.81 ERA across 31.2 innings, and his 6.50 xERA and 7.64 FIP aren’t much more encouraging. He’s also managed just 7.67 strikeouts per nine innings after routinely averaging double digits in the minor leagues.
Perhaps his strikeout stuff will show up on Saturday. He’s taking on the Mariners, which is about as good of a matchup as you could possibly ask for from a strikeout perspective. They own the second-highest strikeout rate in that split this season, whiffing in 26.0% of their at-bats.
Pfaadt is also very affordable at just $6,200 on DraftKings, making him a cheap source of upside. He leads the slate in projected Plus/Minus per THE BAT, and he’s projected for less than 12% ownership.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Carlos Carrasco is another interesting value option at pitcher on Saturday. He’s had a rough season, posting a 5.82 ERA and a 6.13 xERA, while his K/9 has dipped from 9.00 last year to 6.62. He’s struggled with both walks and homers, and he allowed 10 hits in less than three innings in his last start. Still, that came in Fenway Park against the Red Sox, and his current matchup should be much friendlier. The Nationals rank just 24th in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers, and Carrasco is a -168 favorite. Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries and moneyline odds have averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.80 (per the Trends tool). He trails only Pfaadt in projected DraftKings Plus/Minus per THE BAT.
Bryce Elder has the strongest Vegas data on the slate. Most of that stems from pitching for the Braves, who are implied for a robust 6.0 runs vs. the Brewers. However, Milwaukee’s 4.3-run implied team total is near the bottom, and Elder is a -202 moneyline favorite. The Brewers’ projected lineup has also been a very favorable matchup for right-handers over the past 12 months. They’ve managed just a .298 wOBA in those matchups – the worst splits-adjusted mark on the slate – and they’ve struck out in 26.2% of their at-bats. Elder hasn’t been particularly impressive of late, but he still owns a very respectable 3.30 ERA for the year. Perhaps this is the spot where he turns it around.
Hunter Brown is another strong option to consider on FanDuel, where his $8,500 salary comes with an 85% Bargain Rating. He’s had an excellent rookie season, pitching to a 3.61 FIP while displaying some of the nastiest stuff in baseball. He’s averaged 10.42 strikeouts per nine innings, and he ranks 18th among 71 pitchers with at least 100 innings in Stuff+. His matchup vs. the Rays isn’t great on paper, but the Rays have been a mediocre offense after their incredible start to the season. They’re down to just 18th in wRC+ vs. right-handers over the past 30 days, and they own the eighth-worst strikeout rate as well. Brown could ultimately be a bit overlooked in this spot.
MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in our MLB Models when generated by projected points using THE BAT belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
Another day, another Dodgers stack. The Dodgers have one of the most potent lineups in the league, so they are prominently featured in this section. Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and Will Smith are as good of a top three as you’ll find in baseball, while Max Muncy and J.D. Martinez both bring plenty of homer upside to the table. This stack is expensive, but it’s not surprising that it leads the slate in projected points on plenty of days.
The Dodgers will be at home on Saturday against the Reds, and they’re implied for a slate-best 6.3 runs. That even beats out the two Coors Field squads, even though the total on that game is 1.5 runs higher.
The Dodgers are taking on Luke Weaver, who is exactly the type of pitcher you want to target in DFS. Not only is he a poor pitcher – he owns a 7.20 ERA for the year – but he also allows tons of long balls. In fact, his average of 2.25 homers per nine innings is the worst mark among all pitchers with at least 80 innings this season.
The Dodgers also enter this contest in elite recent form, with most of their lineup succeeding against right-handers over the past 30 days (via PlateIQ):
Among the five above batters, only Smith has a wOBA below .400 against right-handers over the past 30 days. Betts and Freeman are both at .520 or higher, and they’ve displayed plenty of power as well.
If you can’t afford the Dodgers’ top five hitters, there are plenty of other interesting permutations as well. James Outman has excellent numbers against right-handers this season, and he correlates well with the top of the lineup as the projected No. 9 hitter. He also grades out well using our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations table:
David Peralta and Jason Heyward are other cheap outfield options who will be on the positive side of their splits. Ultimately, I’d want to have Mookie and Freeman, but you can conceivably pair them with almost any other hitters from this deep lineup.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Shea Langeliers C ($3,500 DraftKings, $3,100 FanDuel) Oakland Athletics at Colorado Rockies (Chris Flexen)
You don’t need to play a catcher on FanDuel, but I would suggest taking a long look at Langeliers regardless. He ranks second in terms of projected FanDuel Plus/Minus per THE BAT, and he leads all hitters in projected DraftKings Plus/Minus. The A’s are currently enjoying a trip to Coors Field, and Langeliers had a strong showing in Colorado on Friday. He racked up two extra-base hits, and the A’s offense erupted for eight runs. They draw an outstanding matchup Saturday vs. Flexen, who has struggled to a 7.71 ERA and 6.66 FIP across 42 innings. Stacking the A’s on this slate is certainly viable – no one on the team is priced above $4,500 – but Langeliers is one of their best options at a position that is notoriously tough to fill.
Ezequiel Tovar SS ($4,200 DraftKings, $3,300 FanDuel) Colorado Rockies vs. Oakland Athletics (Paul Blackburn)
The Rockies are also in play at Coors, and their 6.2-run implied team total trails only the Dodgers. Tovar entered the year as the team’s No. 2 prospect, but unfortunately, he’s struggled to start his MLB career. He’s posted just a 78 wRC+, with 10 homers and five stolen bases in 96 games. That said, his numbers are significantly better when playing at home, and he’s expected to occupy a premium spot in the Rockies’ lineup.
Byron Buxton OF ($5,200 DraftKings, $3,100 FanDuel) Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals (Jordan Lyles)
Is it time to let Buxton out of the doghouse? That remains to be seen, but it’s definitely tempting at just $3,100 on FanDuel. At his best, Buxton was one of the top power-speed threats in all of baseball. He hasn’t displayed nearly the same ability this season, but he did have a two-homer game just last week. After being activated from the paternity list, he should rejoin the lineup just in time for a matchup vs. Lyles. Lyles has posted a 6.19 ERA across his 19 starts this season, and he’s allowed 1.84 homers per nine innings. It’s a great matchup for Buxton to get his season back on track.
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