MLB Breakdown provides data-driven analysis using FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight the most popular players in our MLB player models.
Thursday will feature a four-game slate beginning at 12:35 pm ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Selection
Dylann Park ($9,700) Chicago White Sox (-145) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Even for a four-game slate, Thursday is ugly for the upper arms. No pitcher on DraftKings is rated for 20 points in FantasyLabs or THE BAT models, but Stop is close at around 18.
Quit has taken a big step forward this season, his ERA ballooning to 4.86 from last year’s 2.20. Defensively, his batting averages were slightly better this year and his ERA was slightly worse last season. Still, he’s only 27 years old, coming off of two great seasons and already has a track record.
He has the perfect matchup to get him back on track today against the Cleveland Cavaliers. Cleveland has just tied for worst offense against Detroit all season and currently has a 78 wRC+. Unfortunately, it doesn’t hit much, which limits Cease’s upside, but that’s acceptable on a small board that lacks other high-ceiling options.
Breakout is the clear leader in mid- and ceiling forecasting today and has the highest ownership forecast. The combination of matching and ability is hard to come by, so it’s worth eating the lime.
MLB DFS Choose a price
Trevor Williams ($6,400) Washington Nationals (+128) vs. Miami Marlins
Williams is another pitcher we have primarily targeted for the match. He doesn’t have a breakout record – although the last two seasons were much better than this one – but the $3,300 savings is more than enough for that.
Miami has the worst platoon split as a team, with a 111 wRC+ against lefties but an 85 mark against right-handed pitchers like Williams. Their 23.6% strikeout rate is on the high side, so we can comfortably put Williams ahead of his 16.5% mark on the season.
Vegas data isn’t favorable on Williams, with Miami trailing by 4.5 runs. However, it’s safe to assume that his overall 4.44 ERA, which is seventh-worst in the majors, is a larger-than-normal chunk of the Nationals’ bullpen. I don’t expect Williams to be lights out, but a strong performance is likely given his salary.
BAT is led by Pts/Saal projection, coming in a close second in FantasyLabs projections.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Uri Perez ($7,700) Miami Marlins (-152) Washington Nationals
The Marlins star prospect got a lot of attention in his early days, but today he may be slipping a bit under the radar. That makes the 20-year-old’s fastball a perfect time to record a 98 mph hit in his big league debut last week.
He had a solid outing, striking out seven through 4.2 innings of two-run ball. We’d love to see him go deeper into games, but his high strikeout rate is less efficient. Even so, we can imagine a longer rope on the second launch.
He also has a good matchup against the Nationals, one of four teams with a wRC+ under 80 against righties on the season. Their low strikeout rate could be a blessing, allowing Perez to stay in this one a bit longer.
The Nationals’ 3.7-run impact total is the second-lowest on the slate, so Vegas is clearly on the starter’s side today. It is coming in at third place in terms of projected ownership, making it the best GPP option.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Known stack
With Lineup Builder, it’s easy to include stacks in a DFS list.
Also, don’t forget you can use our Lineup Optimizer to create up to 300 lineups for big field tournaments.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB playoff model is the Baltimore Orioles when the rankings are created using the overall projection set:
Baltimore’s 5.1 run total led the shortstop Thursday, making them the clear top stack. While they cost a pretty penny, the lack of a pitch in the five-figure range makes them more accessible than many builds.
They correspond to the left of the angels Tyler Anderson ($6,700)His ERA and leadoff hitters are all over five this season. After all, Baltimore has rattled left-handers this season. They were league-average against righties, but have a top-five wRC+ on the year against southpaws.
Baltimore will be chalky today, but there aren’t many poles of interest. If you’re looking to be unique, consider the Mullins – the most expensive Oriole – split with the ugly platoon of Southpaws. Replacing it with an Oreo sequence saves a lot on labor and ownership.
Other MLB DFS Hitter picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items on the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to in-house MLB predictions, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his predictions alone or create comprehensive predictions in our player models.
For this example, we’ve created a 50/50 mix with THE BAT X and FantasyLabs predictions to highlight some of the standout hitters.
Lewis Robert Jr
The White Sox season has been disappointing so far, but not because of Robert. 267 with 12 home runs in 43 games played in 2023. A solid number given his salary, with an average DraftKings score of 9.0 points per game.
What’s even more shocking is that Robert hasn’t been so lucky this season. He has excellent speed, but his BABIP is about 40 points below his career average. Based on the audience size, if the BABIP reverts to his career average, he’s hitting .295.
He feasted on the left-hander in his young career with a .351 average against southpaws like Cleveland. Logan Allen ($8,600). His FanDuel value is reasonable today, but he’s much cheaper on DraftKings.
Brandon Lowe 2B ($4,600 DraftKings; $2,900 FanDuel) Tampa Bay Rays at New York Mets (Taylor McGill)
There is a dearth of solid secondary starters on today’s slate, but Lowe stands out as one of the few quality options. In THE BAT estimations, he leads the position in the middle and ceiling and closely follows the most expensive ones. Luis Arez In the FantasyLabs collection.
Lowe is hitting just .208 this season, but thanks to his career-low BABIP, he’s a significant rebound candidate. If anything, we’d expect his BABIP to be higher this season because it’s so confusing that teams can no longer rotate. Although his power was not average, he did make eight home runs in 38 games.
He’s a much better value on FanDuel, where he has an 89% trade-in rating, but plays solidly in a weak spot on DraftKings.
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