MLB Breakdown provides data-driven analysis using FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight the most popular players in our MLB player models.
Saturday’s MLB slate varies by location. FanDuel offers a seven-game main slate starting at 4:10 pm ET, while DraftKings offers a six-game main slate starting at 4:05 pm ET. The main article on DraftKings starts at 1:05 pm ET, but this piece will focus on the contest starting in the 4 pm window.
MLB DFS Pitcher Picks
MLB DFS Stud Selection
No matter what board or site you play, the Saturday board is easy on the upper arms. None of the high pitches stand out in terms of price, so it makes sense to target the guy with the highest ceiling. That’s it. Nathan Eovaldi.
Let’s start with the bad news. Eovaldi is taking the rays, which is the most difficult match. He led the league with a 126 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers this season. They also rank 22nd in that division and are second in runs per game. Eovaldi’s Vegas data isn’t very encouraging, with the Rays listed at 4.1 runs average and the Rangers -105 on the money line.
However, good hitting is sometimes bettered by good hitting, and Eovaldi has been excellent this season. He’s pitched to a 2.24 ERA in 12 starts, and his base metrics support his dominance. He boasts a 2.44 FIP and a 2.79 xERA, so he’s basically been as good as advertised.
The rays may be a better match than they appear on paper. They haven’t been great against right-handers of late, ranking 17th in wRC+ over the last 14 days. Their strikeout streak jumps to nine in the same span, so the Rays have been more vulnerable the past two weeks.
Eovaldi is the most expensive, but leads all pitchers in ceiling projections in our MLB models.
Select MLB DFS value
Cole Irvine The spot on DraftKings stands out as the clear top value at just $6,200. Irvin has been terrific this season, pitching to a 10.38 ERA over 13 innings. However, his long track record suggests he’s an acceptable starting back. He has a 3.98 ERA in 30 starts in 2022 and a 4.24 ERA in 2021. Those numbers aren’t going to get you into the Hall of Fame, but they’re good enough to keep you employed.
Where Irvin stands is his match. He is taking the Royals, who have been a menace against left-handed pitchers this season. They own a 68 wRC+ in that division — the second-worst mark in the league — and also boast the fourth-highest strikeout rate. Irvin is far from an avid pitcher, but there was more upside than usual in that department on Saturday.
Its Vegas info is quality for its price tag. He is a -150 favorite, and the Royals are tipped for 4.2 runs. Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries and Vegas data have averaged a plus/minus of +1.97 on DraftKings (via the Trends tool).
Irvin leads the board in projected plus/minus on DraftKings, and is one of four pitchers projected to offer positive value this afternoon. His ownership projection is also reasonable, making him a suitable option in all types of competition.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Irvin is not on the FanDuel mainboard, however Brian Wu It is a strong alternative. It’s basically free at $5,600; It is the only other Peter in the same state. John Brebia, who is expected to pitch only an inning or two as an opener. Woo lasted just two innings in his first start, but he got extremely lucky. He posted a 27.00 ERA in that outing, but had a 0.78 FIP. I don’t think I’ve ever seen such a big difference. That’s obviously over a small sample size, but Woo has posted a 2.05 ERA and 12.07 K/9 in nine starts at Double-A this season. He had a K/9 of at least 12.0 per stop in his minor league career, so he should be able to miss at-bats at the MLB level. He is a prime rebound candidate against the Angels on Saturday.
Jared Schuster Another potential value is optional. His first taste in the big leagues wasn’t particularly impressive, but he’ll draw a respectable Saturday against the Nationals. They are only 23rd in runs scored and, although they are better against the right-handed southpaws, they are conceding just 4.2 runs on Saturday. Playing for the Braves gives Schuster a lot of winning potential. He’s a -185 favorite, and it’s rare to find a big favorite this cheap. Pitchers with comparable salary and money line odds have a historical average plus/minus of +2.70 on DraftKings and +2.98 on FanDuel.
Kyle Hendrix He’s an interesting value option on FanDuel, where his $6,500 salary comes with a 97% negotiation rate. Hendricks hasn’t pitched particularly well the past few seasons, and he’s getting a little long in the tooth. However, he is slightly taller than a regular Giant. They have the second highest strikeout total this season, and have slowed down a bit after a strong start to the year. They rank 15th in wRC+ against right-handers over the past 30 days, and pinch-hitting in San Francisco would give Hendricks one of the best park factors at the plate.
MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Known stack
With Lineup Builder, it’s easy to include stacks in a DFS list.
Also, don’t forget you can use our Lineup Optimizer to create up to 300 lineups for big field tournaments.
The highest DraftKings stack in our MLB models when generated by projected points using BAT is the Atlanta Braves:
The Braves have one of the best lineups in baseball, and they’ve been hot lately. They rank first in wRC+ over the last seven days, and have averaged seven runs over the last six games. Only Saturday’s Coors Field teams scored more than the Braves’ 5.8 runs, and they weren’t on afternoon boards.
The Braves are taking it on the left hand Mackenzie Gore, which showed signs of improvement this year. He owns a 3.66 ERA in 12 starts, and is striking out 11.25 batters per nine innings. Gore was already considered one of the best pitchers in baseball, so it’s no surprise that he’s coming into his own.
However, Gore’s Statcast data is a bit worrying. He ranks in the 35th percentile or worse in average exit velocity, fastball and barrel rate, so batters are making solid contact when putting the ball in play. Gore cooled off a bit as the season progressed, his ERA increasing with each subsequent month.
The Braves have some guys with left-handed injuries. Ronald Acuna He boasts a 168 wRC+ in that stretch, and he’s a terror in the batter’s box and on the bases. Ozzie Albies He’s always been a better switch hitter with southpaws, and owns a 213 wRC+ this season. Austin Riley And Sean Murphy They also own the benefit of splits, and boast a 145 and 173 wRC+, respectively.
Matt Olson It’s the only hitter that doesn’t have the benefit of separation, and their left-handed numbers are worse than their right-handed numbers this season. Still, Olsen has been on fire for his career against southpaws, and could see at least one more at-bat against the reliever.
Still, if they hesitate to use Olsen, the Braves have plenty of capable replacements. Using the PlateIQ tool, Kevin Pillar And Orlando Arcia Both are known as skilled hitters on southpaws.
Moving away from hitting Olsen at No. 7 or 8 would lessen the connection a bit, but it would save some salary and should help ownership.
Other MLB DFS Hitter picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items on the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB speculations is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his predictions alone or create comprehensive predictions in our player models.
For this example, we’ve created a 50/50 mix with THE BAT X and FantasyLabs predictions to highlight some of the standout hitters.
Seth Brown 1B/OF ($2,800 DraftKings, 2,500 FanDuel) Oakland Athletics at Milwaukee Brewers (Julio Teheran)
Brown drew two walks on Friday, giving him a positive plus/minus on DraftKings and FanDuel for the fourth straight game. Our combined projections look like five deliveries in a row on Saturday, leading all hitters on both sites in projected plus/minus. Brown is a proven commodity against right-handed pitchers, and he figures to be a solid matchup against Teheran. He has only played 3 games so far this season, and has basically been out of the league the last two years. Thanks to a .235 BABIP, he survived his first three outings, but they all fell apart eventually.
Jose Ramirez 3B ($3,300 FanDuel) Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Houston Astros (JP France)
Ramirez will only be available on FanDuel on Saturday, but he should be highly regarded on that site. Ramirez hasn’t had the same success this season as in years past, but he’s starting to heat up. He already has more homers in June than he did in all of May, and has posted a 165 wRC+ over that stretch. Ramirez has been more successful with his right-hander than his left-hander this season and will be a positive in his performances against France. France pitches to a 3.44 ERA this season, but his 5.13 FIP suggests he’s been lucky.
Willie Adams ($4,200 DraftKings, 3,000 FanDuel) Milwaukee Brewers to Oakland Athletics (Paul Blackburn)
The Brewers are tied with the Braves for the top turnover team total on afternoon boards. Blackburn was surprisingly an All-Star last season, but that had more to do with the rest of the A’s being scarier than Blackburn. In the year He had just a 4.28 ERA in 2022 and is at 6.00 in his first two starts this season. Adams, a right-handed hitter, has always played better against right-handed pitchers and has a career wRC+ of 117 in this division. It’s expected to be second in the lineup for the Brewers, making it a solid option at its current price tags.
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