We have a stacked 16-game MLB slate on Friday, which means there are plenty of entries to sift through on PrizePicks.
A quick refresher if you aren’t familiar with PrizePicks: you can combine up to five different player squares to pay out up to 10x your entry.
You can do a Flex Play or a Power Play. A Flex Play provides lesser odds, but you can win money even if you don’t nail every pick. A Power Play is all-or-nothing.
Here’s how I would approach Friday’s MLB slate.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player picks in which you combine two or more entries together.
Manny Machado Fantasy Score More Than 7
The second installment of this four-game NL West series gets underway Friday evening with the fourth-place San Diego Padres hosting the third-place Arizona Diamondbacks.
Right-hander Brandon Pfaadt takes the mound for Arizona and should be a good candidate to fade. Through 11 starts, the rookie is 0-6 with a 6.92 ERA and 1.52 WHIP.
His underlying metrics suggest that positive regression is unlikely as Pfaadt ranks in the 17th percentile or lower in average exit velocity, HardHit%, xERA/xwOBA, xBA, xSLG and Barrel%.
Manny Machado is the first San Diego hitter to back. By Machado’s standards, it has not been his most successful campaign, although he still possesses a respectable .251 BA, .449 SLG and .765 OPS with 21 homers.
While it is a small sample size, Machado is 1-3 with a double in his career against Pfaadt, a performance that is certainly able to be replicated given the right-hander’s disastrous rookie campaign.
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Fernando Tatis Jr. Fantasy Score More Than 8.5
Fernando Tatis Jr. is the other Padres hitter to back on Friday.
Entering this contest in great form, Tatis Jr. has surpassed this figure in five of the past seven games, averaging 13 fantasy points over that span. This strong stretch of hitting could continue against Pfaadt, a pitcher whom Tatis Jr. is also 1-3 against in his career.
Again, that is a small sample size, but what may sell you more is the fact that his underlying metrics are spectacular this season. Currently, Tatis Jr. ranks in the 90th percentile or higher in average exit velocity, HardHit%, xwOBA, xBA and xSLG.
Corbin Carroll Fantasy Score More Than 7.5
We are also going to back a couple of Arizona hitters in this contest as right-hander Seth Lugo takes the mound for the Padres.
It has been a tough campaign for Lugo, who is 4-6 with a 4.16 ERA and 1.25 WHIP through 18 starts. His analytics are also poor, ranking in the 39th percentile or lower in average exit velocity, HardHit%, xERA/xwOBA, xBA, xSLG and Barrel%.
Corbin Carroll is the first Diamondbacks hitter to back. A clear runaway for NL Rookie of the Year honors, the 22-year-old has already developed into a star at the major league level.
Through 116 games, Carroll boasts a .272 BA, .507 SLG and .859 OPS. Not only is he a monster at the dish, but he is also a menace on the base paths, ranking second in the NL with 37 stolen bases, which is one of the fastest ways to rack up fantasy points.
While Carroll is just 1-6 in his career against Lugo, that one hit was a triple.
Ketel Marte Fantasy Score More Than 7
Speaking of results against Lugo, Ketel Marte boasts a .250 BA and .417 SLG through 12 career plate appearances against the right-hander. It has been an impressive season for Marte, who possesses the big advantage of batting directly behind Carroll.
Through 114 games, Marte boasts a .277 BA, .482 SLG and .835 OPS with 19 homers. He should be well rested in this contest, coming off of Thursday’s scheduled rest day for the second baseman.
Also possessing strong underlying metrics, the switch-hitter ranks in the 69th percentile or higher in average exit velocity, xwOBA and xBA.
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