This is a short slate where sportsbooks have set lines appropriately, and thus it is tough to find value on anything other than longshots in the MLB player prop market. Luckily, we have MLB Bet Pro on hand to help decipher which of those longshots are truly worth taking and which are setting money on fire. With that in mind, let’s get into the best MLB predictions, player props and strikeout props for Thursday, Aug. 10.
But remember that these are just three of the +EV MLB player props on MLB Bet Pro; the model has several other options, which you can access by signing up now to get Stokastic’s Bet Pro offer: One trial month for $24.95 that gets you access to MLB Bet Pro, plus access to our Premium Chalkboard!
3. Ty Blach O/U 3.5 Strikeouts
This is the third time in a span of about a week where one of the top plays is a Rockies lefty pitching away from Coors Field. The first two worked out pretty well, and Blach profiles similarly as he takes on a brutal Dodgers lineup.
Blach’s sample size is not huge this year, with only 26 innings under his belt, but he did have 44.1 innings with the Rockies last year as well. And somewhat surprisingly, his home/away splits actual favor pitching at Coors by quite a bit, as he allows a considerably higher OPS on the road and strikes out a mere 16.2% of hitters away from Denver over the last two seasons. Blach is also averaging less than a strikeout per two innings this year in his limited time, and since he has made very few starts over the last two years, he only has one outing with four strikeouts or more.
The strikeout line of 3.5 is minuscule and will not take much to beat. That said, Blach is not a potent strikeout pitcher at the moment, so if anyone is going to fall short of 3.5, MLB Bet Pro thinks Blach is a good candidate. It has him for a mere 2.8 strikeouts tonight, giving the under a 63% win expectancy and 4% EV.
Best MLB Player Prop: Ty Blach Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-156, FanDuel)
2. Alex Verdugo O/U 1.5 Total Bases
The next two props are high-risk/high-reward wagers with low expected win rates but great odds.
Verdugo and the Red Sox are taking on an inexperienced lefty in Austin Cox who has made two whole starts in his MLB career. And though Cox’s overall numbers are solid, in his two starts he failed to get out of the fifth inning, allowing 11 total hits and seven earned runs combined. He is certainly vulnerable when he has to go through the lineup multiple times, and Verdugo is one of Boston’s best candidates to take advantage.
Verdugo has multiple hits in 31 games this season and is tied for third on the Red Sox in hits. But the big thing working in favor is his odds at +150, which is pushing the EV up to a strong 6% despite a modest 42% win expectancy. MLB Bet Pro projects Verdugo for 2.3 hits tonight.
One thing to keep in mind is that this line is only available at bet365, which is active in only a small number of U.S. states. Odds at other books are far less favorable.
Best MLB Player Prop: Alex Verdugo Over 1.5 Total Bases (+150, bet365)
Latest MLB DFS Content
1. Willson Contreras O/U 0.5 Hits
The 11% EV on this play is by a wide margin the best value of the slate, but it is also coming with a 38% win expectancy, so the recommended bet size is still pretty modest here.
Contreras has at least one hit in over half his games this year, and he has also hit safely in four straight, so it may seem foolish to bet against him. However, MLB Bet Pro is liking the regression play. Contreras gets Zack Littell, a serviceable but not particularly daunting starter who is coming off a six-inning, three-hit game. That performance may be driving some of the projections here against Contreras. Contreras’ platoon splits may be doing that as well, as his numbers are slightly worse in same-handed matchups. It is not so drastic as to drive Contreras unders to the stratosphere, but it makes him an intriguing fade when the odds are good.
And good odds are in play here. BetMGM has Contreras at +190 to not record a hit, and with a decent matchup and middling projection of 0.7 hits from MLB Bet Pro, it is worth a gamble on the under here.
Best MLB Player Prop: Willson Contreras Under 0.5 Total Bases (+190, BetMGM)
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