The Sunday slate begins in just a couple hours, so there is no time to delay. Overinflated lines on underperforming bats and arms abound, and MLB Bet Pro has identified a number of +EV spots worth attacking. Let’s get into the best MLB player props for Sunday.
But remember that these are just three of the +EV MLB player props on MLB Bet Pro; the model has several other options, which you can access by signing up now to get Stokastic’s Bet Pro offer: One trial month for $24.95 that gets you access to MLB Bet Pro, plus access to our Premium Chalkboard!
3. Teoscar Hernandez O/U 1.5 Total Bases
This very same Hernandez under connected on Friday, and nothing has changed about him or his situation. He is once again facing a decent Orioles righty, his numbers are down across the board, and his splits against same-handed pitchers and at home are both noticeable worse.
With Friday’s under, Hernandez now has just one over on 1.5 total bases in his last five games and only two in his last 10. Even in a down year, he in theory has enough home run power to make this bet a sweat, but the way Hernandez is performing right no makes this an under worth locking in. MLB Bet Pro gives him a 62% chance of staying under 1.5 total bases, giving this bet a 6% EV.
Best MLB Player Prop: Teoscar Hernandez Under 1.5 Total Bases (-140, BetRivers)
2. Jose Urquidy O/U 4.5 Strikeouts
It has been a limited sample due to an extended injury absence, but things have not been good for Urquidy. He has made seven starts this year, all but one of which came in April, and he allowed seven hits in five of those while only once completing the sixth inning. He also only has two starts of five strikeouts or more this year.
Now, one could look at the time off and suggest perhaps those past performances are not indicative of where he is in August, but in his first start back, Urquidy went just 3.1 innings and allowed five runs while striking out only one hitter. Today he gets the Angels, who have some injuries but also some power still, so Urquidy may have his hands full again. He is averaging a mere 7.0 strikeouts per nine this season, which paces him to reach his fifth strikeout in the seventh inning. Again, he has yet to throw a pitch past the sixth.
Since there are strikeouts in the Angels lineup, MLB Bet Pro gives Urquidy a projection of 4.2 that is close to the line of 4.5. That is leading to a modest expected win rate of 48%. However, the plus money on the under is launching this play up the value board, and it has a projected ROI of 7%.
Best MLB Player Prop: Jose Urquidy Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+124, FanDuel)
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1. Brandon Pfaadt O/U 5.5 Strikeouts
For all the hubbub about the disappointing Padres, their lineup has been getting some things done over the last few weeks. Just in the past 15 days, they are in the top 12 in OPS and runs (not great, but above average), and more importantly for these purposes, San Diego has the sixth-fewest strikeouts. And decent run production and solid strikeout marks are exactly the type of offense worth attacking to fade a struggling rookie pitcher.
Pfaadt’s whiff rates are OK — 7.7 per nine, 19.4% overall — but the offense he is giving up has been a problem. Through 10 starts, Pfaadt has allowed at least four runs in five, leading to an ERA over 7.00 and a WHIP over 1.40. He righted the ship a little a couple starts ago, striking out seven and giving up one run in seven innings, but then Pfaadt went out and surrendered four runs in just 4.2 last game. He now has just two overs on 5.5 strikeouts in 10 starts this year.
And given the Padres’ improving plate discipline, this is not a great spot to project a boost for Pfaadt. As such, MLB Bet Pro has him at 3.9 strikeouts today, leading to a 65% win expectancy and 8% on under 5.5.
Best MLB Player Prop: Brandon Pfaadt Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-156, FanDuel)
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