Marlins vs. Dodgers Odds
Friday, Aug 18
10:10 p.m. ET
-115o / -105u
-115o / -105u
The Dodgers just continue to find ways to win, taking an 11th straight behind a solo shot from Austin Barnes late on Thursday night.
The Miami Marlins are lined up to become L.A.’s next victim this weekend, but they’ll fire their best bullet on Friday in the form of Sandy Alcantara.
Can the reigning Cy Young award winner finally put an end to this brilliant run? Let’s break it down in our Dodgers vs. Marlins preview and prediction.
The Marlins have been playing some good ball of late, winning five of their last eight, including some wins over the Reds and Astros, who very well may be playoff teams.
Expanding a bit, however, this team is just 23rd in wRC+ over the last two weeks with a poor 5.8% walk rate and 23.8% strikeout rate. While they’ve hit .233, their Isolated Power is a very strong .180 — so this certainly isn’t an easy lineup to navigate even if the hits haven’t been coming consistently.
Speaking of consistency, it’s been hard to get a read on Alcantara this season. When he’s been on, he’s been unbelievable. He’s coming off of a complete game against the Yankees which saw him strike out 10 and allow just one earned run.
Earlier in the month, he spun eight shutout innings against a strong Phillies offense. Sandwiched in between, however, was a brutal outing against the Rangers which saw him allow five runs over six.
It’s hard to say Alcantara simply had a slow start. His expected batting average in the month of June was .280, and in July it stood at .281. His hard-hit rate has remained consistently below average throughout the season. He’s posted a season-best ground ball rate and xBA here in August, but that’s a three-start sample.
Alcantara is a pretty frustrating pitcher to bet on right now, and it’s anyone’s guess how he will fare on Friday. It does seem like most signs would point to him struggling with the league’s best (or second-best) offense, but as he’s shown this month and in seasons past, he’s capable of stifling anyone.
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Where have you gone, Tony G? An All-Star and 16-game winner a season ago, Gonsolin has been the antithesis of everything he was in 2022. His ground ball rate has dropped six points, his strikeout rate is down more than four points, and his xBA has jumped from .220 to .265 this year.
The spin and velocity on his fastball has been nowhere close to what we saw a year ago and he hasn’t successfully been able to generate swings and misses on his split and his slider. Simply put, he’s lost.
Gonsolin has looked good in recent starts against the Athletics, Rockies and Mets, but he’s struggled against the real offenses he’s faced, allowing a total of 15 earned runs in his recent starts against the Padres, Rangers and Blue Jays.
Undisciplined teams and ones which can’t hit for power have seemed to struggle, but power-hitting clubs have been feasting off of the Dodgers righty.
I did have to double-check this number, but over the last 14 days the Dodgers rank just 11th in wRC+. While that seems hard to believe, it’s mostly due to a pretty low .164 ISO over that span.
L.A. is hitting .275 with a 8.8% walk rate and very low 17.2% strikeout rate over the last two weeks, which is proof enough that this team is seeing the ball incredibly well at the moment.
Marlins vs. Dodgers
Betting Pick & Prediction
Gonsolin has looked competent over the last month and a half when he’s faced a bad offense, and while you may think that means he’ll shove against the Marlins I’m not so sure. Their ability to hit for power here should prove to be troublesome for the embattled righty and with that I think I’m going to play the total here.
Alcantara still hasn’t done enough to earn my trust back, and against a team which rarely swings and misses and takes a patient approach, I think we’ll see more of the guy who had an ERA well north of four runs for the first three months of the season. The Dodgers have been that good at the plate.
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