The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Monday features a nine-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Charlie Morton ($9,300) Atlanta Braves (-214) vs. Los Angeles Angels
Morton is an easy choice today as the leader in both THE BAT and FantasyLabs median projections. That’s despite his price tag, which has him set as the fourth most expensive pitcher on the slate today.
He’s taking on an Angels team that’s still without Mike Trout and just lost Taylor Ward to a likely season-ending injury. Los Angeles acquired some hitters in a trade with the Rockies that should bolster their lineup, but it appears neither will be available until tomorrow at the earliest. That makes the Angels a much easier matchup than their season-long numbers indicate.
While Vegas has the Angels implied for just over four runs, they also have Morton and the Braves as the slate’s heaviest moneyline favorite. He has a solid 3.57 ERA on the season, with a 24.3% strikeout rate that should play up against the free-swinging Angels.
While Morton is unlikely to post a “break the slate” score, he’s a rock-solid pick that deserves consideration in all contest types.
MLB DFS Value Pick
George Kirby ($8,600) Seattle Mariners (-132) vs. Boston Red Sox
Kirby isn’t quite as cheap as we usually look for with our value plays, but he fits the bill nonetheless. He’s taking on a Red Sox team with the lowest implied total on the slate and is expected to carry massive ownership as a result.
He also ranks near the top in Pts/Sal projections, with a median that puts him on pace to more than 2X his moderate salary. The matchup with Boston isn’t the easiest, but he has an ERA and ERA predictors in the low threes. Those are good enough numbers to suggest he’s viable in almost any matchup.
Like Morton, he’s not a big strikeout arm. His 22.6% rate is below what we’d expect from a pitcher at his salary. That — plus his massive projected ownership — makes him a far more viable cash game play. He’s arguably the safest pick on the slate, though, so he has a place in GPP lineups that differentiate elsewhere.
MLB DFS GPP Pick
Nick Pivetta ($6,600) Boston Red Sox (+110) at Seattle Mariners
For tournaments, I actually prefer the other side of the Mariners/Red Sox game with Pivetta. There are a couple of reasons for that, even beyond this game having the lowest Vegas total on the slate and fairly close moneyline odds.
The biggest is the ownership discrepancy. THE BAT currently has Kirby as the slate’s most popular arm, with Pivetta projected in the mid-teens. That’s far too wide of a gap, given how close betting markets are and the matchup similarities. Seattle ranks one spot behind Boston in wRC+ against righties.
Pivetta also fits the GPP archetype better. While his ERA is a bit higher at 4.11, he gets far more swings and misses than Kirby. He has a strikeout rate of just under 30%, with a better swinging strike rate too.
That meshes nicely with the one area where the matchup differs here. Seattle strikes out at the second-highest rate against righties this season, while Boston ranks 25th. All of which gives Pivetta a higher ceiling at lower ownership than Kirby. Add in the $2,000 in cost savings, and he’s an obvious GPP play tonight.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the San Diego Padres:
San Diego is on the road, taking on a left-handed pitcher with a 5.85 ERA and a 5.75 xERA. That makes them a strong option, given their status as a top-five team against lefties on the season.
Of course, the real appeal is where they’re playing on the road. That would be Coors Field, where they have a 6.9 run implied total against the Rockies. Xander Bogaerts and Juan Soto both stand out using our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations table:
While this stack is expensive at more than $5,000 per player, we have enough cheap pitching options today to make it fairly easy to fit them in. For deeper contests, you could also consider pivoting to some cheaper Padres, which will likely be a less popular build today.
Our PlateIQ tool makes some of these cheaper options apparent:
While there are some sample size issues, Gary Sanchez ($3,700) and Matthew Batten ($2,800) have excellent numbers against lefties and would be logical pivots for deeper tournaments or if trying to save salary.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Boom Fantasy has to offer with promo code LABS for a $100 deposit match.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Dominic Canzone OF ($2,100 DraftKings; $2,400 FanDuel) Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants (Alex Cobb)
Given the price tags on the Padres stack — and the open outfield spot — it makes sense to try to play the cheapest outfielder on the board today if possible. That’s Canzone, a rookie lefty for the Diamondbacks. He’s hitting just .237 on the season but projects as a plus-plus-power prospect.
Canzone is also slated to hit fifth in the Arizona lineup, which is enough for me at his current salary. He’s a DraftKings-only play thanks to a 97% Bargain Rating, which is top-five for all hitters on the slate.
Ryan McMahon 3B ($4,500 DraftKings; $3,900 FanDuel) Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres (Seth Lugo)
The Rockies’ lineup doesn’t give us much to work with, especially after trading away their best hitter to the Angels over the weekend. However, we shouldn’t totally ignore them. They have an implied total of just under five against a struggling pitcher in Lugo.
McMahon is the top choice on the Rockies, thanks to his .257 batting average and 16 home runs. While we generally discount some of that power given his home ballpark, it’s relevant since he’s in Coors tonight. He makes for a reasonable pivot from Machado in GPPs or lineups where saving the $1,100 on DraftKings is useful.
Jeremy Pena SS ($4,300 DraftKings; $2,600 FanDuel) Houston Astros vs. Cleveland Guardians (Noah Syndergaard)
I’m looking for ways to fade Syndergaard today. He’s been bad all season and is returning from a brief stint on the injured list to make his Guardians debut. He likely performs even worse after missing some time, especially in a tough matchup.
Pena is my choice, thanks to his reasonable FanDuel salary. He’s the top-rated shortstop in our tournament model on FanDuel when using either the FantasyLabs or THE BAT projection set. With a 90% Bargain Rating, he makes for a solid pivot from Bogaerts, especially considering Bogaerts’ status as the weakest member of the Padres stack.
[ad_2]