Baseball betting is one of a kind. Drilling into a full board every day is exhausting and sometimes the edges are on one side or nowhere at all. But the chances of destroying the pots to a lesser degree are constant. One of the areas I mentioned this season is the player proposal market. More specifically, looking at poets and their general foundations/proposals.
Whether it’s a positive split or a windfall, there are always opportunities to back some of MLB’s best hitters to find the bench going out with double-digit power. These bets are rarely (+) money and home runs can often reach the 6-700 mark, providing a lot of value for a small cost.
That leads us to my new regular feature here at Action Network: DiSturco’s Triple 7s. In each article, I’ll give three of my favorite total base hitters and pair those same players with a chance to hit a home run.
The idea of triple 7s comes from slot machines. That’s the ultimate jackpot and it’s worth noting the rarity of that highlight. Like the positions, comparing the three players below to hit a home run is nothing more than a lottery ticket.
It’s important to bet responsibly, and if I bet each player to hit o1.5TB (.5u) and HR (.1u), you shouldn’t overextend yourself with all three bets. It’s a long shot for a reason.
But if you’re feeling confident or have no plans and want to try and hit the Triple 7s, pull the lever and cross your fingers. Today’s lottery ticket comes with it +14476 odds
Visit our MLB Props page for a complete list of props for every player on the MLB slate each day.
Austin Riley, Atlanta Braves
Phillies vs Braves, 7:20 pm ET
Opponent launch: t. Walker (RHP)
This follows a similar thought process to Alec Bohm’s, although the split isn’t the main reason I’m taking Riley here. I watched most of his at-bats last week and he was locked in at the plate.
Riley went 6-of-8 (75%) over 1.5 total bases on an eight-game hitting streak. In Thursday night’s contest against Aaron Nola, he had two doubles in the previous two games.
Everything is clicking on the board for Riley. With a high exit rate — 83rd percentile on average — and barrels starting to add in late May, it ranks in the top 2% of the total.
On a positive note, Riley has also seen his foot speed increase, indicating more plate discipline.
He draws a good matchup against Taijuan Walker, who has struggled around the boards. The barrel rate settled around 8% and his xSLG rose above .420 again. He’s always prone to home runs and with shaky command, Riley should see plenty of appetite.
On DraftKings I’m backing Riley with a 1.5 total base (+110) proposal and throwing .1u to hit another home run (+525) at Caesars.
Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals
Nations vs. Royals, 8:10 p.m. ET
Opponent launch: p. Corbin (LHP)
It’s Patrick Corbyn Day, so what better way to celebrate than with propaganda on a left-wing presenter?
Corbin is going a little unlucky last month (25 IP, 8 runs) but has metrics across the board. His xBA is .323 and xSLG is .524, both career worsts. His xERA jumped over 6.00 again and his strikeout rate (13.8%) continued to decline.
All of this is a very hitable patch that needs to be broken down more than it is. Enter Bobby Witt Jr. with an .843 OPS and 126 wRC+ against southpaws.
Witt is a midfielder but can crush the ball. His top exit rate is in the top 10% of all hitters, and his barrel rate (11.2%) and xSLG (.472) are both up from his rookie season.
Witt is one of the fastest players in baseball and singles can quickly turn into doubles. He doesn’t walk a lot – not that Corbin walks a lot of batters – which means we need to see him play the ball consistently.
He was also a bit unlucky in the grand scheme of left-handed batting. His BABIP is .233, but he’s hitting above average (.286 ISO, too).
This is one of those rare situations. I’m taking (-125) a 1.5 total base prop – .5u to win – and building on it to get .1 bleachers (+550). Both are on DraftKings.
As Sean Zerillo always says, Hi Patrick.
Jordan Alvarez, Houston Astros
Astros vs. Athletics, 9:40 p.m. ET
Opposing Starting Pitcher: J. Kaprielian (RHP)
James Kaprielian and the staff at the Oakland Athletics Stadium are disgusting. The offense wasn’t the issue, but there are obvious problems on the mound. Assigned to starting again, Kaprielian is fading with a 6.37 xERA, .485 xSLG and 9.6 barrel size.
Even though it’s an obvious choice, I like Jordan Alvarez in this righty-lefty matchup. He ranks in the top 5% of all hitters in average exit velocity, slugging velocity, xSLG, xwOBA and barrel size.
He’s one of the scariest hitters to face and you won’t be able to outrun him very often with the sandwich position at his command. Eight of his home runs against the right-handed pitcher are, and he’s basically split-proof — his OPS is .978 or better against both righties and lefties.
Alvarez has had a better run in May — his average and slugging jumped from .267/.507 to .324/.662 from April — and Jose Altuve’s return to the lineup should only help his slide.
I’m throwing .5u on Alvarez to hit at (+105) over 1.5 total bases at BetMGM and an additional .1u on HR (+300).
DiSturco’s Triple 7s Home Run Bet for Friday May 26th
- Austin Riley (+525)
- Bobby Witt Jr. (+550)
- Jordan Alvarez (+300)
If you like the three plays and want to try a spin by hitting triple 7s, the $10 home run proposition for these three at DraftKings comes in at $1,457.62.
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