Happy Friday everyone!
We’re back to dissect the MLB PrizePicks board and find some solid picks to kick off this holiday weekend.
28 of the 30 teams will be there tonight starting at 6.40pm or later.
Let’s jump right into it.
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Pete Alonso over 8.5 Hitter Fantasy points
The Mets travel to Coors Field today to play the Rockies.
The ballpark’s conversion from City Field to Course Field represents one of the biggest upgrades for the pitchers in all of MLB.
Alonso is coming off an impressive three-game streak against the Cubs, in which he hit two home runs and recorded four RBIs despite less-than-ideal hitting conditions in windy conditions at Wrigley Field.
He now leads MLB with 19 home runs, four more than Max Muncy and Jorge Soler (tied for second).
Today he finds a more comfortable environment in the park of the best hitters in baseball.
Not only does the ballpark work in his favor, but he also gets a good matchup.
Rockies starting pitcher Connor Siebold has a 5.97 ERA through 31.2 innings pitched this year with a 16.8% strikeout average.
Alonso is having an impressive season with a .349 wOBA and .289 ISO against right-handed pitching.
His 19.6% barrel rate ranks 5th in the league.
He should be able to post over 8.5 fantasy points today with all these things working for him.
Jordan Alvarez is over 8.5 Hitter Fantasy points
The Astros open a three-game series today against the Oakland Athletics, who have had the worst pitching staff in MLB so far this season by a good margin.
James Caprilian will make the start for the A’s and has been absolutely on fire against left-handed hitters this season.
He’s allowed an obscene .364 ISO and .447 wOBA to the Grizzlies, while striking out just 17.9 percent of them.
Five of his six home runs this season have come against lefties.
Houston happens to have one of the best left-handed hitters on the planet in Jordan Alvarez.
Since the start of last season, he has posted a .406 wOBA and .307 ISO against right-handed pitching.
His 19.0% barrel rate ranks 7th in baseball this season.
If Alvarez can’t get the job done against Kaprielian, he should get a couple cracks in Oakland’s bullpen.
Athletics relievers own the worst SIERA (5.18), second-worst strikeout rate (18.8%) and worst walk rate (13.8%) in MLB this season.
Jordan has a great chance to post better than 8.5 fantasy points today.
Rafael worked over 1.5 total bases
Devers and the Red Sox got a matchup with Arizona rookie right-hander Brandon Pfadt.
And while Pfadt is one of the best closing prospects in baseball, he has yet to translate that promising streak into success at the major league level.
He has a below average 15.9% strikeout rate and 9.1% walk rate through 5.70 starts this season.
Pfaadt allowed a .410 wOBA, a 50.0% hard hit rate, and a .618 xSLG, all of which ranked in the bottom 5% of the league.
Devers has established himself as one of the best hitters in the majors since the start of last season, owning a .373 wOBA and .248 ISO against right-handed pitchers.
His 13.8% barrel rate ranks 26th in MLB among those with at least 150 plate appearances this season.
He should be able to record more hits or extra-base hits to give us more than 1.5 total bases today.
Ronald Acuna over 9.5 fantasy points
Acuna is off to the best start of his career, which is saying a lot since he posted two seasons over 155 wRC+.
Simply put, he’s playing at an MVP level right now.
So far this season, he has posted a .424 wOBA, .245 ISO, and 166 wRC+ in 227 plate appearances.
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He also smashed 11 home runs and added 22 stolen bases for good measure.
Today, Acuna gets a matchup against Taijuan Walker, who has a 5.79 ERA with a 21.0% strikeout rate and an 11.0% walk rate.
He’s struck out just 18.1 percent of the right-handed hitters he’s faced this season.
Acuna has plenty of ways to put up strong fantasy points thanks to his power and speed combination.
I like to post over 9.5 fantasy points on the Phillies.
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