The second half of MLB starts Friday after the All-Star break. The entire league has now played more than half. At the beginning of the season, I wrote down about 10 pitchers I wanted to bet on this year, assuming the market was underestimating their true talent or ERA.
A handful of notable and expected players have had poor starts to the 2023 season, from Sandy Alcantara to Corbin Burns to Aaron Nola and Alec Manoa. The market is prone to frustrations and disappointments, but changes in momentum, factors and fundamental assumptions can provide value in certain startups and future bets.
Here are seven potential undervalued pitchers I want to bet on for the remainder of 2023.
For every pitcher you talk to in every start of the 2023 season, I’ve included their record and ROI ($100 per pitcher). That data is provided by BetLabs.
Follow Anthony DaBundo on the Action App to see his MLB bets throughout the 2023 season.
Corbin Burns, Brewers
First half betting record: 10-8, -$105
The Reds hitters noted that Burns had the best stuff they’ve seen all season after going six innings with two runs allowed and six strikeouts Friday. Burns is one of the current surprises in the betting market. The market has consistently moved against him from the opening line to the finish, including the start against Cincinnati.
Early in the season, Burns showed a legitimate decrease in his velocity and swing strike rate that caused him to function as a diminished pitcher. In May, he expressed his disappointment in the media about the fall.
His cutter is typically one of the best pitches in all of baseball and his velocity on it was just under 93.7 mph in a three-game streak in early May. Burns’ velocity has returned enough that he has averaged a 94.5 or higher cutter velo in four of his last five starts. He had one blast in the first inning of his June 19 start against the Diamondbacks, but still ranks in the top five among starters in total stuff+.
Despite that outburst, Burns has a 3.92 ERA over his last eight starts with 51 strikeouts in 50 1/3 innings. If you want to bet Burns, I’d recommend waiting until closer to the early stages of the game if the market continues to price him down.
Tyler Wells, Orioles
First half betting record: 10-7, +$71
I’ve probably bet more on Wells than any other pitcher in all of baseball over the past two seasons.
There is a problem with the home run and it’s always a problem with small samples because he allows a lot of fly balls. Wells allowed 1.39 HR/9 in 2022 and is up to 1.81 HR/9 in 2023 with the increased run zone and fly ball distance. His HR/FB rate increased from 11% to 14% year over year. The BAT projection expects him to allow 1.55 HR/9 for the rest of the season, which is in the middle of the last two seasons.
Wells is producing more strikeouts this season, but that raises his ceiling as a starter. He’s just one strikeout short per inning, and the Stuff+ and swinging strikeout rate projections suggest he can always keep his K/9 around nine. Wells once again placed in the top 10 of qualified starters in infield fly ball speed. The ability to generate pop-ups is for hanging runners.
The market has gotten the same profile of Cubs lefty Justin Steele in full, but it still remains to bet Wells.
Kyle Bradish, Orioles
First half betting record: 10-6, $+262
Bradish is the only pitcher featured in the preseason and midseason columns. His Stuff+ has only been updated in the last couple of months. Of the pitchers with at least 30 innings as a starter in 2023, only Jacob deGrom, Spencer Strider, Graham Ashcraft, Hunter Greene, Gerrit Cole and Shohei Ohtani have a better Stuff+ rating per FanGraphs.
If you only sample the past 30 days, Bradish’s 130 Stuff+ is the best in all of MLB. A quick look at his Baseball Savant Statcast profile doesn’t jump off the page, but Bradish has shown good command and pitch modeling suggests he should improve his offensive velocity going forward.
Bradish’s fastball remains below average and is hit well, so the righties should emphasize the pitch and focus more on his plus-plus slider and more curveballs and sinkers.
BAT pegs him for a 4.55 season ERA, but he could beat that number and move closer to a 3.9-4.0 ERA pitcher’s break with his changed arsenal.
Tarik Skubal, Tigers
First half betting record: 0-2, -$200
Skubal returned from injury and looked as good as he could have hoped for through the first eight innings. Not only did Skubal not allow a run, but his swing strikeout rate was a ton of work in the Toronto and Oakland lineups.
Skubal’s fastball remains below average in Stuff+, but his elite slider and good changeup really rank him high against both lefties and righties. In the first half of 2022, Skubal was hurt long enough to forget how much he took the leap as a pitcher.
So far, he has added more vertical movement on both his curveball and changeup. He doesn’t have a great record of success with his new Arsenal, but he is a different pitcher now. The market was very slow to catch up with it last year and it will probably be in the second half of 2023.
A signal swing needs more pitches to stabilize, but 13.3 percent in two starts puts him near an ace-level pitcher.
Cooter Crawford, Red Sox
First half betting record: 4-5, -$56
Crawford got an extended run in Boston’s rotation and made a real splash in 2023. Crawford will start 2022 with a 5.47 ERA, but the main pitch model data has always favored him and suggests better results are to come. Forward him.
Crawford has a 3.68 xERA (4.11 perfect) in 2023 and is striking out nearly a batter per inning. His K-BB%, which stabilizes after 60 innings, is 18.5% above average, and Crawford surpassed the 60-inning threshold in his last start.
Crawford also has a pretty wide arsenal, mostly fastball and cutter, but a little mix of breaking balls is enough to avoid potential major problems. The Red Sox have several starters on this roster, and if Crawford establishes himself as a middle-of-the-rotation starter, they could be a stealth team for a second-half run.
Brian Bello, Red Sox
First half betting record: 9-5, +$471
The Stuff+ model at FanGraphs is off on Bello’s change, but it’s clear from his movement and on-field results that he’s now in the midst of a blitz.
The 24-year-old righty hasn’t shown any big strikeouts, but he’s improved his command significantly. His first strikeout rate and zone rate both jumped more than a percentage point, and Bello’s fundamentals improved despite getting more chases and fewer whiffs.
He’s not as good as his 3.04 ERA suggests, but should be better than his 4.20 ERA break average projection.
His sinker has a grade of 53 on the PitchingBot Stuff metric (20-80 scale), with a changeup of 55. It’s both platoon plus, and while you’d expect the platoon split to differ from the actuals as a result, it actually turned out better. In 2023, the right instead of the left.
Lance Lynn, White Sox
First half betting record: 7-11, -$445
In the year I’ve been betting against Lin a lot in 2023, but all of his underlying metrics point to him being close to making a run in the second half. Lynn has a career-worst 6.03 ERA, but is tied for a career-high 11.1 strikeouts per nine. He allowed home runs on 20% of his fly balls, indicating a big positive regression for the second half.
Lynn has allowed a 5.9% operating barrel rate, and by 2023 the actuals are coming in at nearly double the barrel. Lin saw a drop in overall Stoff+, but not in Extra Connection. His 14.1% swinging strikeout rate is a career high, and his allowed zone contact rate is third among all MLB starters. It’s time to buy linen on the floor.
Top 10 Lowest Zone Connection Rates — An Indicator of How Good Your Stuff Is:
- Spencer Strider
- Shane McClanahan
- Lance Lynn
- Joe Ryan
- Luis Castillo
- Freddy Peralta
- Blake Snell
- Pablo Lopez
- Zack Wheeler
- Shohei Ohtani
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