That’s the question on the minds of every sports radio caller this week, different variations. Who said no? Who hangs up first? What is it worth?
They say: What does it take?
With the trade deadline just over a week away, let’s dive into what it will take to find the missing piece to get a team over the mound. To get a better idea of how certain players on the trading block might be valued, I looked at their historical antecedents. Player X looks a lot like Player Y a few years ago; What did it take to get player Y?
We did this over the weekend with Shohei Ohtani. Let’s do it (more briefly) with the biggest names on the business block. Note: Stats are in Saturday games, and wins over replacement are according to FanGraphs.
Age: 32
Contract Status: He is owed $8.4 million through the end of the season with one year and $21 million remaining on his contract, with an option to opt out. (If Stroman pitches 160 innings this season, his player option will increase to $23 million for 2024.)
Statistics for 2023: 10-7, 3.09 ERA, 21.1 percent strikeout percentage, 2.5 WAR in 122 1/3 innings.
Comparison: Yu Darvish, 2017
Stroman is currently having a better season than Darvish had when he was traded to Texas with the Dodgers (4.01 ERA in 137 innings), although the 10 runs Darvish allowed in his last start as a Ranger skewed those numbers. (His ERA was 3.44 the week before the deadline.) Stroman’s 2.5 WAR is best compared to Darvish’s 2.7 WAR at the time of the trade.
Along with Darvish, the Rangers received Willie Calhoun (a consensus top 100 prospect), AJ Alexi (a recent 11th round pick who cracked LA’s top 20 prospect) and Brendon Davis (an A-ball outfielder who is a top-30 prospect in the Dodgers system). At his levels prior to his 2015 Tommy John surgery, Darvish was now viewed as more of an AC than Stroman. That means this type of package is probably the ceiling for Chicago in a Strowman deal.
Age: 28
Contract Status: By the end of the season, he had borrowed $4.2. Common option in 2024 for $25 million with a $5 million buyout.
Statistics for 2023: .319/.371/.539/.918, 143 wRC+, 13 HR, 2.7 WAR in 283 plate appearances
Comparison: Carlos Beltran, 2016
Let’s see how many other examples there are of a man:
- He recently won the MVP
- In the end, he was probably the worst everyday player in the majors.
- He returned to his old self again
It happens all the time, right?
Bellinger’s career arc is unique. Beltran in 2016 — the third and least-ballyhooed time he’s been moved at the deadline — isn’t an obvious comp as a trade candidate. For one, Bellinger is 28 and Beltran was 39 in 2016, and Bellinger is having a better season to this point (2.7 WAR to 2.3). But listen to me.
First, their recent career going into the season was pretty similar: Bellinger was worth 1.8 WAR last season and below his replacement level the year before. Beltrán was worth 1.8 WAR in 2015, well below his replacement’s mark the year before.
Second, rents were higher in 2016 than they are now, so a better Bellinger might have been worth as much as Beltran back then.
The Yankees received Dillon Tate (a recent top-five pick and top-100 prospect) and A-ball pitchers Eric Swanson and Nick Green from Texas for Beltran.
Another possibility here is one the comps know: Kris Bryant at 21. Bryant, too, has fallen several years removed from an MVP season — though not nearly as much as Bellinger did. However, Bellinger’s recent hot streak means Bryant has more wins this season than he did before being traded to San Francisco. Bellinger is the best position player to move at this point, and that could increase his value.
For Bryant, Chicago returns outfielder Alexander Canario (a top-10 prospect in the bigs who looks like he’s breaking out) and Double-A pitcher Caleb Killian (who posted very strong results that season).
Age: 30
Contract Status: He was loaned $3.4 million until the end of the season, then a free agent.
Statistics for 2023: 6-7, 3.14 ERA, 22.1 percent strikeout rate, 2.5 WAR in 109 innings.
Comparison: Jaa Haap, 2018
Yeah, yeah, you know how: every left-hander has to compete against every other left-hander, and that’s especially true of the Brotherhood of Deadline Southpaws in St. Louis. I’m looking at the time Happ was traded from Toronto to the Bronx at the deadline – Happ’s fourth of five career moves in July.
While Montgomery’s 2023 was much better than Happ’s 2018, he didn’t quite have the track record that Happ did at the time. Happ is two years removed from a 20-win season that earned him the Cy Young vote with the Jays. Still, Montgomery offers the same kind of high-floor reliability that has made Happ so attractive at various deadlines.
The Blue Jays received Brandon Drury and Billy McKinney in exchange for Happ. Drury was struggling in his third full season after two solid years with Arizona, and McKinney was starting with the Yankees, a few years removed from a top-100 prospect. (This is the third time McKinney has been traded as a prospect at the deadline, having previously been moved in the Jeff Samardzija and Arldis Chapman deals.)
Age: 29
Contract Status: He was loaned $3.5 million until the end of the season, then a free agent.
Statistics for 2023: 6-6, 3.96 ERA, 25.2 percent strikeout rate, 1.3 WAR in 116 innings.
Comparison: Kyle Gibson, 2021
It’s harder than expected to find a good comp for Giolito (or Detroit’s Eduardo Rodriguez) — who I’d rate as more interesting than Giolito — a pitcher with an established floor but some potential to hit a high ceiling, and he’s not yet 30. Gibson Comp works in some ways and not in others.
Gibson made the 2021 All-Star team and was in the midst of a career year, but one regression is inevitable. The right-hander provided an additional year of team control.
The Phillies got Gibson, reliever Ian Kennedy and Hans Kruse (recent top-100 prospect) with one of their top prospects in Spencer Howard (current top-100 prospect), Josh Gessner (rookie-ball catcher) and Kevin Gowdy (A-ball pitcher). The White Sox could try to bring back a better individual prospect by packaging Giolito with additional pieces, as the Rangers did.
Age: 27
Contract Status: 1.8 million dollars until the end of the season, then he was loaned as a free agent
Statistics for 2023: 7-6, 4.39 ERA, 22.2 percent strikeout rate, 1.5 WAR in 104 2/3 innings.
Comparison: Noah Syndergaard, 2022
Like Syndergaard a year ago, Flahert is an extremely talented righty who has produced outstanding results over the years and is now working his way back from health issues. Flahert is younger than Syndergaard, hasn’t shown as much of a slump in things as Syndergaard, and won’t cost nearly as much money the rest of the season. Syndergaard was moderately better last season, though in fewer innings when the Angels protected him in their six-man rotation.
All of this returning Syndergaard — a former No. 1 pick but then postseason prospect Mickey Moniak and A-baller Jadiel Sanchez — is probably the low point for Flahert’s trade.
Age: 24
Contract Status: $200,000 owed by the end of the period; Arbitrage eligible for the first time this summer. Under group control until 2026.
Statistics for 2023: .232/.340/.359/.699, 100 wRC+, 5 HR, 0.6 WAR in 212 plate appearances
Age: 27
Contract Status: $700,000 owed by the end of the period; Arbitrage eligible for the second time this summer. Under group control until 2025.
Statistics for 2023: .290/.337/.488/.826, 121 wRC+, 16 HR, 2.1 WAR in 421 plate appearances
Comparison: Tommy Pham, 2018
Carlson played for the Cardinals, Thomas played for the Cardinals, so why not stick with the Cardinals? Neither Karlsson nor Thomas have reached the heights Fam showed as a late bloomer for St.Louis. In the year He received MVP voting in his first full season in 2017. Thomas, who went to the Nats for Jon Lester two deadlines ago, is in the midst of an offseason. He comes with one year less control than Karlsson, who can play center field.
In the year St. Louis to Tampa Bay in 2018 with international bonus slot money for Double-A starter Génesis Cabrera, Double-A reliever Roel Ramirez and Triple-A outfielder Justin Williams with 3 ½ years of team control left in 2018. Cabrera and Williams were considered strong prospects despite being outside of the publication’s top-100 lists.
Age: 38
Contract Status: 3.4 million dollars until the end of the season, then he was loaned as a free agent
Statistics for 2023: 4-2, 14 saves, 2.08 ERA, 28.2 strikeout percentage, 0.7 WAR in 43 1/3 innings.
Comparison: David Robertson, 2022
Sometimes it’s hard to come up with comeback comps for players, and sometimes the best comp is looking back in the mirror.
Robertson’s stats are pretty much the same as they were a year ago: his ERA is 0.15 better, his WHIP 0.026 better.
In dealing Robertson with Philadelphia, the Cubs landed right-handed pitcher Ben Brown. In the year As early as 2022, Brown was Frein’s top-20 prospect in Philadelphia’s middle-of-the-road system — possibly a relief. In July, the rotation was in the midst of an offseason that made it look like its final home. Since the trade, Brown has continued to climb the guard rankings until reaching the top-100.
The Mets won’t get Brown a comparable prospect to Robertson now. But they need to look for the same profile – someone who has the ability to climb quickly.
Age: 26
Contract Status: He was loaned $600,000 until the end of the season, then a free agent
Statistics for 2023: 1-6, 8 saves, 3.76 ERA, 31.5 percent strikeout rate, 0.8 WAR in 40 2/3 innings.
Comparison: Craig Kimberly, 2022
I have to admit: this comparison is the biggest stretch here. When Kimbrel crossed town from the Cubs to the White Sox, he was one of the sport’s most accomplished closers in the midst of a renewed season: his ERA was 0.49, his WHIP was 0.709, and he had one more, albeit expensive, year of team control left.
Hicks has none. However, since taking over the closing role in St. Louis, the 26-year-old has been electric with a 1.93 ERA since June 14th. Like Kimbrel, this tenure will be followed by some rocky moments — ones you’ll be more than willing to ignore when you’re hoping to ride it out for another two months.
By sending Kimbrel south, the Cubs brought back Nick Madrigal (a top-25 prospect who had played well in the majors before suffering a season-ending hamstring injury in June) and Cody Heyer (a major-league catcher). The Cardinals don’t particularly return to the Pack, but Hicks’ motivations make him a pitcher who brings more than just the stats he offers.
(Top photo by Lucas Giolito: Nuccio DiNuzzo/Getty Images)
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