There are 15 MLB games on the calendar for Wednesday, July 19, so we’re splitting the best bets into two files. The loaded schedule offers plenty of betting opportunities and our experts found value on several MLB games on Wednesday afternoon.
Our MLB betting experts are looking at some totals and have their eyes on the over, under and team totals. There is also a first five innings money line selection, so be sure to read on, but don’t forget that there are plenty of great bets as tonight’s games will be covered in a different story.
Here are the best MLB bets for Wednesday afternoon (July 19).
Wednesday afternoon MLB best bets
The team logos in the table below represent each matchup that our MLB betting staff has targeted from today’s schedule. Click on the team logos for the matches below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
Guardians vs. Pirates
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by DJ James
Aaron Sivale returned from injury for the Cleveland Cavaliers and will face Rich Hill and the Pittsburgh Pirates who have struggled offensively. Hill wasn’t all that impressive, but neither was Cleveland’s offense.
Both teams struggled to generate offense, and even though the starters weren’t the starters, this game still had to go all-in.
Civale carries a 2.65 ERA against a 3.79 xERA, so despite the expected improvement, he’s still posting solid numbers. His average exit velocity ranks in the 39th percentile and his hard-hit rate ranks in the 76th percentile. He owns a strikeout rate of less than 20% and a walk rate of less than 7%, so he’s hard to talk to. But with the way Pittsburgh has been hitting the ball, Civale should have a good start.
The Cubs have four hitters with an xwOBA over .320 this season — David Frye, Josh Bell, Ash Rosario and Josh Naylor. Otherwise, this lineup is pretty weak outside of the southpaws with a 97 wRC+ this month.
On the other hand, Hill’s 4.76 ERA against a 5.40 xERA doesn’t jump off the page, but he still ranks in the middle of the pack in both average exit velocity and hard-hit rate. Hill is definitely showing signs of age, but if he can get past the top of Cleveland’s lineup, he could be off to a strong start.
Pirates can’t hit. They have a WRC+ of 66 this month as well as a .605 OPS and a 25.2% strikeout rate.
Plus, the Pirates’ relief staff is starting to turn things around. They have three arms with an xFIP under 4.00 over the past month, so if Hill can get through five innings, Pittsburgh has enough options to close out the game.
With both teams not getting much on the board, look for a buzzer beater to dominate. Take this under 9 (-110) and round it to 8 (-120).
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QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to pre-load their betting slips on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Guardians vs. Pirates
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Guardians First 5 Inning Money Line (-125)  |
by Dylan Wilkerson
The Rangers’ dominance over the Pirates has kept them close to first place in the AL Central. Cleveland will look to turn its back-to-back win into a winning streak and sweep Pittsburgh on Wednesday. To do this, the Guardians will have to jump ahead of the bandits, and I believe they are more than capable of doing so.
Cleveland is divorcing 43-year-old leftie Rich Hill. His 7-9 record and 4.76 ERA aren’t too shabby, but his low whiff rate and negligible fastball speed should worry Pirates fans. Josh Bell, Jose Ramirez and Ash Rosario all had hits on the hill with Ramirez hitting his 1.000th career hit.
On the other side of the field, Aaron Sivale is ready to take the mound for the Rangers. Civale has faced fewer tackles than Hill’s defenders, but has a higher turnover rate. It’s also worth noting that the Pirates hit .022 against lefties, putting Pittsburgh at another disadvantage. Return the guards early Wednesday afternoon.
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to pre-load their betting slips on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Dodgers vs Orioles
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By Colin Whitchurch
Wednesday’s series finale in Baltimore will feature two starting pitchers in warmups.
Dean Kramer’s past two starts have been arguably the best of his career. Against the Marlins and Yankees, he pitched back-to-back wins for 18 strikeouts, three walks and two earned runs in 13 innings.
Julio Uria was shaky in his first start back from the injured list, but bounced back with 15 hits, two walks and two earned runs in 12 innings combined in two straight quality starts against the Mets and Pirates.
I’m not sold on either season, and I think we’re getting good value with two offenses in their best division — the Orioles against lefties and the Dodgers against righties.
While Kramer has looked better of late, he doesn’t generate many whiffs and — like Tyler Wells’ hit on Tuesday — allows a lot of home runs. FIP-based projections are even harsher on Kramer, but Baseball Prospectus pegs his DRA (earned earned run average) at 5.10, and his 110 DRAI suggests he’s about 10% worse than the average starter.
Urias has obviously had ace-caliber highs in the past, but his stuff has dipped significantly this season, and he’s been hurt by his lack of shifts as much as any pitcher in baseball this year. His DRA is nearly half a run worse than his ERA, and his Stuff+ and Location+ are both down from a year ago and slightly above average.
These are two of the best offenses in baseball and I think both are poised for strong days at the plate. Neither will tax the bullpen, but the Dodgers’ bullpen has been shaky all year, with Baltimore reeling from Yanier Cano’s season and vulnerable across the board without Felix Bautista.
As of this writing, the best available is over 9 at -110, but 9.5 has been touched in a few books. I’d bet 9.5 at -110 or better, but nothing more.
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to pre-load their betting slips on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Dodgers vs Orioles
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By Mike Ianniello
It’s been a bit of a strange season for the Dodgers as they battle in the NL’s most competitive division. They spent 47 days in first place, but fell to third place a few weeks ago.
They seem to be clicking on all cylinders now and are 16-6 in their last 21 games and are back on top.
Baltimore has been crushing the ball, too, and an 8-2 record over their last 10 games has brought the Orioles within one game of the AL East.
These offenses are red hot, so it’s no surprise that I like the outcome of Wednesday’s game between the Dodgers and the Orioles.
Last year, Julio Urias finished third in the NL Cy Young Award voting and led the NL with a 2.16 ERA. He posted an ERA under 3.00 in back-to-back seasons but took a step back in the first half of this season.
Through his first 13 starts of the year, Uriah has a 4.35 ERA and hasn’t looked like his dominant self. He has allowed at least two runs in his first nine starts and is allowing career highs in barrel rate and slugging percentage.
We’re used to the Dodgers having a lethal offense, and they’re not slowing down. They rank second in the league in xwOBA and have four players in the league’s top 30 in wRC+.
If it weren’t for Ronald Acuna Jr., Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman would be battling for NL MVP.
Most of our Action Network experts Dean Kramer have been fading all year. In 19 starts, Kremer has a 4.59 ERA. However, he has a worrisome 5.37 xERA and the indicators say things are only going to get worse.
This young Orioles lineup has been set all season. They are ninth in wOBA and wRC+ and have seven players with wRC+ over 120. Adli Rutschmann and Gunnar Henderson are great starters, but Anthony Santander and Austin Hayes have also been outstanding.
Uriah has allowed a career-high 14 homers in 13 games. Meanwhile, Kramer has allowed 20 home runs in 19 games. Among pitchers with at least 70 innings pitched, Uriah has the 10th-highest HR/9 and Kremer the 15th-highest.
These faults have become red hot. Over the past two weeks, Baltimore leads the league with a 140 wRC+, while the Dodgers are second (138). They also ranked first and fourth in scoring in that stretch.
Additionally, Los Angeles is up 53-36-5 and Baltimore is up 48-38-8.
You’re going to give me two underdogs, two red-hot offenses, and two of the most profitable teams in the league? Let’s be ourselves on Wednesday!
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to pre-load their betting slips on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Red Sox vs Athletics
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Red Sox Over 5 Runs (-125)  |
by DJ James
Both Brian Bello and the Red Sox offense have been impressive lately and will look to continue that trend when they face Ken Waldichuk and the Oakland A’s on Wednesday afternoon.
Waldichuck ranks in the lower middle of the league in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate. That said, he walks 12.7% of hitters, which is pretty ugly and explains why his xwOBA is over .350.
The Red Sox were missing a .791 OPS and 114 wRC+ from the southpaw last month. Pablo Reyes is on the injured list and Rafael Devers is still nursing a tight calf as of Tuesday night. Either way, Boston has five hitters with an xwOBA over .335 this season (over 10 plate appearances). Jorge Alfaro only has 43 plate appearances this season, but owns a 90.5 mph average exit velocity and a hard-hit rate of over 40%. It helps if he plays.
Add to that the fact that Oakland relievers own a 4.43 xFIP since the start of July, and the Red Sox need to clean up their entire lineup. Take them to 5.5 (-120).
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to pre-load their betting slips on FanDuel Sportsbook.
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