Taylor Smith previews the Saturday, August 12th slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
We’ve got some day baseball to pass the time this afternoon, but we’re here to talk about tonight’s bigger MLB slate. DraftKings is rolling with a 10-gamer and is including Game 2 of the Braves-Mets doubleheader, while FanDuel’s slate is a 9-gamer excluding ATL/NYM. Things are a bit lacking on the pitching front tonight, which should lead to some ownership congregating around pitchers who wouldn’t be at all popular on some other slates. That should create some intriguing leverage opportunities for stacking in tournaments. On DK however, we do get at the top.
There’s a lot to break down, so let’s dive in with some notes and MLB DFS picks for Saturday night.
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates.
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- Things initially looked fine on the weather front, but Roth recently upped the risk for CIN/PIT to ORANGE. There are storms around Pittsburgh tonight, and there’s at least some postponement risk here.
- OAK/WAS comes in as YELLOW/GREEN. Roth says the most likely outcome is any storms in the area miss the ballpark, though there is a chance for a mid-game delay if they get clipped.
- Game 2 of ATL/NYM is GREEN/YELLOW, with any rain in the area likely to clear before first pitch.
- STL/KC and OAK/WAS both have temps in the upper-80s around first pitch, which makes for solid hitting conditions. The coolest game on the slate is predictably TEX/SF, with temps in the mid-60s and the usual winds gusting out toward center.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- Brandon Woodruff will make his second start off the IL tonight after tossing 85 pitches in his return last weekend. He should have a longer leash tonight, which makes him one of the best pitching options on the board against a White Sox team that has long since given up.
- will start for the Astros tonight after making his most recent appearance out of the bullpen. France did throw 70 pitches in that outing, so I’d expect a normal leash here.
- Andre Jackson will make a start for the Pirates tonight, but this could be a long opener situation considering he hasn’t topped 32 pitches through his first 2 games with the Pirates. DK has listed as the probable long reliever, though there’s no guarantee he’ll get into the game.
- is dealing with a sprained pinky finger, and he’s questionable to return to the White Sox lineup tonight against Woodruff. He sat out last night after leaving Wednesday’s game with the injury. started in his place last night.
- will miss another game tonight with his lingering hamstring injury, though he’s hoping to return to the Dodgers’ lineup tomorrow. is projected to DH for the Dodgers tonight against .
- is dealing with side soreness that kept him out of the lineup yesterday. He’s slated to undergo an MRI today, which makes him unlikely to suit up in either game of the doubleheader. will take over at shortstop assuming Lindor sits tonight.
- has been battling a sore knee, though he did pinch-hit in last night’s game. There’s a good chance he returns to the Houston lineup tonight against Tyler Anderson.
- is dealing with a bad back. homered twice in his place last night, and I doubt the Astros are too keen on rushing Abreu back into the lineup. Singleton is projected to start at first again tonight.
- was placed on the 7-day concussion IL last night, which takes the Mariners’ lead-off hitter out of the mix. and will play most of the shortstop position for the next week.
- left last night’s game early with “upper body discomfort,” which sounds incredibly vague. We have projected to start and hit second against tonight.
- and both went on the paternity list on Friday. The Rangers called up J.P. Martinez, while the A’s recalled .
- The top stack on tonight’s DK slate is the Braves, because this is a day that ends in “Y.” The Astros get a hittable lefty in Anderson after destroying last night, while I’m willing to go back to the well with the Brewers against in a hitter-friendly ballpark. The Pirates look like a solid value stack against southpaw Brandon Williamson, as well.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
FanDuel:
- You can’t play Strider on FanDuel tonight, which leaves Woodruff ($11,100) as the presumed SP1 in Chicago against the White Sox. Woodruff looked no worse for the wear in his first start off the IL, and he draws a better matchup than either (vs. SD) or (vs. BAL). Woodruff is the first stop in cash games and single-entry GPPs, though Gallen and Kirby still look good in tournaments at what should be a nice ownership discount.
- ($7,200) should be the chalky cheap option thanks to his matchup at home against the Rockies. Gonsolin hasn’t pitched particularly well this year, so I don’t mind pivoting in tournaments. ($6,600), ($6,000), and ($8,200) won’t project as well as Gonsolin from a median standpoint, but they should all be significantly less popular.
- Scholtens projects for a reverse right-handed split, so it’s not a huge surprise to see his worse numbers vs. right-handed hitters so far this season. That’ll make ($2,900) the first stop for me in all formats with the Brewers getting a nice park boost here. You don’t have to play a catcher on FD, but ($3,000) is still squarely in play thanks to the cheap price tag. Scholtens’ splits won’t scare me off of ($3,800), ($3,500), or ($2,400) in MIL stacks.
- Houston is in another good spot against Anderson, a lefty that hasn’t been able to replicate last season’s success so far this term. ($2,700), ($2,700), and Singleton ($2,000) are strong point-per-dollar plays that’ll help you afford to pay up for ($4,300), ($4,200), and ($4,100).
Houston’s lefties are fully capable of mashing left-handed pitching, so I like the value on Alvarez to top 1.5 total bases on Underdog today. If you’re new to the site, be sure to use RG’s Underdog Fantasy bonus code.
(See RotoGrinders projections directly on the Fantasy Pick’em sites with our browser extensions, available to premium users.)
- The Dodgers actually have the highest implied run total on the night at 6.22 against Lambert. He’s flashed some groundball ability, but is the only hitter in the LA projected lineup with a significant groundball rate. ($4,500) is a clear core play in any format, while ($2,600) and ($2,900) are nice values. If you can afford ($4,400), you might as well play him too.
- I’m on the fence about the Cardinals against . The lefty has looked significantly better since arriving in KC, though St. Louis tends to be tough on lefties. Tyler O’Neill ($2,600), ($2,600), and ($2,800) are the headliners from a value standpoint. If the Cardinals will be popular though, I don’t mind deploying Ragans instead.
DraftKings:
- got rekt by the Pirates in his most recent start, but his 38.7% strikeout rate still leads the slate by miles and miles. The Mets are a weak offense these days, especially assuming is still sidelined tonight. The projected lineup has a 26.8% strikeout rate vs. RHPs on the year along with a .281 wOBA and a .153 ISO. Strider is pricey ($12,600), but he should be.
- I’d rather pay up for Strider than overpay for Gallen ($11,600), Woodruff ($10,800), or Kirby ($10,000), though Woody and Kirby are still very much in play for tournaments. Gonsolin ($8,200) should be the chalk SP2 on DK as well, while STLCards has ($7,700) tagged as one of his core plays. Gonsolin looks like he’ll be popular, which makes Matz a decent pivot. I’ll mention Ragans over here, as $5,500 is awfully cheap for a guy with a 31% strikeout rate through three appearances with KC.
- Brandon Williamson has pitched well of late, but the Pirates look like a decent value stack against the rookie southpaw. Ke’Bryan Hayes ($3,300) has shown signs of life since coming off the IL, while the $3,500 Andrew McCutchen is the most expensive hitter in the lineup. ($2,900), ($2,000) and ($2,700) are some more decent point-per-dollar bats.
- The Royals almost always pop as a value stack, and that’s the case again tonight against Matz. ($2,100), ($2,400), and ($2,000) are all around min-salary, so I don’t mind that mini-stack as a way to help you pay up for your Braves, Dodgers, or Astros 5-man stacks.
- The meat of the Astros stack remains expensive on DraftKings, but there’s also some value here with Singleton ($2,200), ($2,500), and ($3,700). The lefty-lefty matchup should lead to limited ownership on Alvarez ($6,200) and Tucker ($6,000).
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck today!
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