Erik Wardenburg previews the Thursday, August 17th slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
Just four games on today’s main slate, and it may end up being only three games, as DET/CLE has a pretty high chance of being PPD based on current forecasts.
Let’s check out some news, notes, and MLB DFS picks!
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates.
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- DET/CLE is looking at a line of storms with coverage and intensity likely too big to play through. Right now, it looks like either they try to start the game with an inevitably long delay, late start the game for multiple hours, or just postpone it and play a double-header in perfect weather tomorrow. We’ll see if anything changes closer to lock, but I’m currently not planning on using anyone in this game.
- NYM/STL has the best hitting weather, with temps in the 80s. ARI/SDP will be in the high 60s, and MIL/LAD will be in the low 70s.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- Mark Vientos is going on the IL with wrist inflammation, and Abraham Almonte is being recalled for him. Jonathan Arauz should see the majority of the playing time at 3B now, while Stewart should continue to start against righties and Almonte/Locastro will see time against lefties.
- Lars Nootbaar fouled a ball in to his groin yesterday, so against a lefty today, I’d expect him to get a day off. Tommy Edman is dealing with a calf contusion, so consider him questionable for now. Willson Contreras is expected to return to the lineup after missing two games with hip tightness. Nolan Gorman is likely still out as he deals with lower back tightness.
- Lourdes Gurriel left early yesterday with a hip contusion, so there’s a good chance he sits today. If he does sit, look for Alek Thomas to fill one of the OF spots.
- The Mets are my top stack today hitting in great weather against Wainwright, who has allowed 15 ER over his last two starts. The Cardinals are also a top stack option against Quintana, along with the Diamondbacks against Hill.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
FanDuel:
- Most cash game lineups will have either Gallen ($10,700) or Lynn ($9,400), as both are coming off three straight strong starts, and using Burnes ($10,100) against the Dodgers isn’t a fun proposition outside of GPPs. If the weather miraculously improves in Cleveland, then Skubal ($8,900) would become an intriguing GPP play. For now, I’m leaning towards Lynn in cash games as he’s $1,300 cheaper than Gallen and draws a slightly better matchup with MIL compared to Gallen vs SD.
- Tyler O’Neill ($2,500) is my favorite p/$ bat of the slate, likely hitting fifth with the platoon advantage in good hitting weather. If Edman ($2,900) hits leadoff, he’ll also be a cash game lock for me, while Contreras ($2,700) is another excellent value bat from STL. Goldschmidt ($3,600) and Arenado ($3,500) remain very affordable and I’d get at least one of them in your main build.
- Brandon Nimmo ($3,000) is my favorite Mets bat for the price, followed by McNeil ($2,700), Alvarez ($2,800), and Vogelbach ($2,400). DJ Stewart ($2,200) is also worth considering, as he’s crushing the ball the last couple games, with three HRs and zero strikeouts. Lindor ($3,600) and Alonso ($3,700) are clearly top spend-ups depending on your salary available.
I like taking higher than 2.0 hits+runs+rbis for Alonso on Underdog, and if you’re a new user, make sure to use RG’s Underdog Fantasy bonus code.
(See RotoGrinders projections directly on the Fantasy Pick’em sites with our browser extensions, available to premium users.)
- Tommy Pham ($2,900) remains an excellent value option with the platoon advantage on Hill, and we have a minimum price trio of Lewis ($2,000), Kennedy ($2,000), and Moreno ($2,000) that make for a really fun GPP stack. Lewis is my favorite target of those three for cash games. Walker ($3,600) is swinging one of the hottest bats in baseball, with 15 hits over his last 9 games. He could be the lowest-owned of the top 1B today, with Alonso and Goldy drawing more attention.
DraftKings:
- Same situation at SP with Lynn ($9,400) being my favorite p/$ play, and I will be pairing him with Gallen ($11,000) in cash games. Skubal ($7,200) is a decent GPP option if it’s looking like there’s any chance that game plays, while Burnes ($10,600) is worth having some exposure to if you’re doing a lot of lineups.
- I’m locking in O’Neill ($3,600), Contreras ($3,900), and Edman ($4,000) from STL in my main build, while Stewart ($2,400) is my favorite p/$ play from the Mets. Nimmo ($4,400) and McNeil ($3,700) are still affordable for more exposure, along with Lindor ($5,000).
- Kyle Lewis ($2,500) remains the best value bat from Arizona, along with Kennedy ($2,300). Pham ($4,000) and Walker ($5,200) are still top targets if you have the salary.
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Getty Images
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