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on Monday, NFL.com’s Nick Snook published an article highlighting the next generation of statistics Cro (hold more than expected) Metric – He explained as follows:



[This statistic] It measures the difficulty of the finish using several factors, including separation from the nearest defender, depth of target and speed. Players who deserve this list and are proud of it CROEs More often than not, they did something difficult to catch, something unlikely. These are the ones you can rely on to hold on tight.

So for each individual target and each receiver, NGS Calculates the probability of catching a pass. The difference between this image (where NGS Calls xCatch) and the receiver’s completion percentage is that player. Cro. When expressed as a percentage, a positive number is good, while a negative number is bad.

Snooker’s top-10 wide receivers Cro The list includes notable names such as George Pickins of the Pittsburgh Steelers, Mike Williams of the Los Angeles Chargers, Dallas Goedert of the Philadelphia Eagles and Cooper Kupp of the Los Angeles Rams.

But the player above is one you’ve probably never heard of until this season: Richie James of the Kansas City Chiefs.

1. Richie James · Kansas City Chiefs

Catch rate: 81.4%
xCatch 70.4%
Croatia: +11%

In a league full of superstars at the receiver position, James may be one of the last players anyone expects to reach the receiver position. The position here is that the giants In line with the narrative they built in 2022, they exceeded expectations by a huge margin. James was one of the all-time greats with career highs in receptions (57), receiving yards (569) and receiving touchdowns (four).

Last season was the first time James reached any of the benchmarks needed to qualify for this list, and only the second campaign in which he saw more than 14 targets. [He had 67 in 2022].

So why did James land here? His catch rate was better than expected of other receivers who met the criteria above. He also helped his targets post a passer rating of 119.6, which is the third-best mark of any passer on this list. Of the 70 targets, only 13 resulted in incompletions. That catches the speed of a running back swinging a pass, not a receiver running through the defense.

take away

So how in the world can a player like James get better? CPO From players like Pickett, Williams, Goedert and Cupp — not to mention Tyler Boyd and Ty Higgins of the Cincinnati Bengals, Devonta Smith of the Eagles and Stefon Diggs of the Buffalo Bills. They were all. as well Behind James in this case. Other players like DK Metcalf, Noah Fant and Tyler Lockett of the Seattle Seahawks, Keenan Allen of the Chargers and Justin Jefferson of the Minnesota Vikings didn’t even make it. to do of Cro Top 10.

The answer is that those players were key players in their respective offenses – as Snook explained:

Most of the family names that missed this list are missing because they saw it. in order to Many targets, we can assume, were guaranteed to see people with lighter grips than their peers, thus reducing the generalization. Cro.

To put it another way: James came to be used in situations where it was very difficult to make a catch (according to PFFHe lined up in the slot for 85% of his snaps and had the lowest average depth of target: 7.0 yards). And in those situations, he made more plays than the average receiver.

Does this mean James could be in the running to be Kansas City’s No. 1 wide receiver? Probably not – although we have to admit that anything is possible, given the vast distance the bosses have come together so far.

But this measure will do Point out why Kansas City wanted James in the first place: not only as a punt returner, but he does a lot of good work in the short to mid-field, and there are reliable receivers and defenders everywhere. (That’s where JuJu Smith-Schuster made his bread-and-butter last season: He averaged 7.1 yards per depth of target — and quarterbacks rated him 104.6 when targeting him).

One thing is for sure: As a year, it will be fascinating to watch how the Chiefs’ wide receivers develop in 2023.

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