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There are plenty of reasons to doubt the New York Jets in the upcoming season. 

I think they’re overhyped, and the acquisition of Aaron Rodgers and the hiring of Nathaniel Hackett won’t mask a tricky start to the schedule (especially when it’ll take time to adjust to an entirely new offense). 

However, that doesn’t mean individual stars can’t shine. 

For example, Garrett Wilson is set up for a huge season. 

The reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year recorded 83 receptions for 1,103 yards and four touchdowns in 2022. He was versatile, lining up in the slot and out wide, and had only two drops. 

And there’s no way Wilson’s production doesn’t go up. 

Wilson’s quarterbacks last season were primarily Zach Wilson, who ranked dead last in completion percentage among NFL quarterbacks since the start of 2021 (55.2%), and Mike White.

Garrett Wilson
Garrett Wilson is in line for a big second year.
Bill Kostroun/New York Post

FTN graded 18.6% of Zach’s throws last year as inaccurate. No other starting quarterback had a mark above 15%. 

Zach also finished 41st of 41 qualified quarterbacks in Pro Football Focus’s passing grades, with an adjusted completion percentage two points lower than any other qualified passer. 

He is the NFL’s most inaccurate quarterback. 

Wilson’s catch rate last year was only 56.5%, the second-lowest mark among 1,000-yard receivers, but 19% of his targets from Zach were graded uncatchable, per Warren Sharp of Sharp Football Analysis.

Wilson finished with the most targets of any rookie receiver over the past 15 years and he should’ve finished with way more receptions and receiving yards.

I’m not sure if Aaron Rodgers will be an elite quarterback in 2022, but there’s no way he’ll be the league’s least-accurate passer. 

Aaron Rodgers
Aaron Rodgers can help elevate Garrett Wilson.
Bill Kostroun/New York Post

In turn, more of Wilson’s targets should be converted into receptions. 

It’s fair to ask if Wilson will receive all or more of the 147 targets he had last season, especially since the Jets added Allan Lazard, Mecole Hardman and Randall Cobb in the offseason. 

I think Wilson likely sees a slight decrease in target share, but I think he’ll replicate the 97% snap rate share he had last year. 

Wilson is the undisputed best wide receiver on the offense by every metric, and his inside-out versatility makes him a three-down receiver. He’s invaluable, and Hackett will need to keep him on the field. 

We have to project a bump in production for Wilson in the upcoming season. 

Garrett Wilson
Garrett Wilson will attempt to tally his second straight 1,000-yard season.
Bill Kostroun/New York Post

And I found a betting market where Wilson is most undervalued. 

At BetRivers Sportsbook, Wilson’s season-long receptions prop is set at 77.5 with -112 odds on both sides.

He had 82 last season and could see a double-digit increase in his catch rate with an NFL-quality quarterback. 

Betting on the NFL?

The Action Network’s Sean Koerner and Chris Raybon make their season-long player prop projections in the offseason and they project Wilson for 87 receptions on 140 targets. 

A slight decrease in targets and a six percent increase in catch rate makes perfect sense and it means over 77.5 receptions for Wilson is worth a wager. 

It’s a tough proposition to tie up your money in a season-long market, but it’s not often you find an edge this large. 

The Play: Garrett Wilson Over 77.5 2023 Receptions (-112)



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