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The NFL schedule was released in full on Thursday, and the New England Patriots have one of the league’s toughest schedules heading into the 2023 season.

The Patriots have the third-toughest schedule in terms of opponents’ winning percentage from the 2022 season and the toughest schedule based on the odds against the opponents’ projected overall wins.

So, let’s take a look at the Patriots’ 17-game schedule and see if they can make the playoffs in 2023.

Week 1 – against the Philadelphia Eagles

There couldn’t be a tougher way for the Patriots to open the season. Maybe they’ll get a break against a Philly team that lost a lot of starters in free agency this offseason.

But most of the players the Eagles lost weren’t the most important part of their Super Bowl run. They also have a sharp edge in the trenches on both sides of the ball, which could lead to a brutal start to the season as the questionable offensive line will have to slow down one of the best defensive fronts in football.

Prediction: Patriots lose 27-13

Week 2 – Against the Miami Dolphins

Tua Tagovailoa had veteran numbers in his career, winning all four games against them. Despite the health concerns surrounding him, he’ll probably be ready for the game considering it’s only the second game of the season.

I still think the Patriots will find a way to win this one. Miami’s defense wasn’t very good last season and lacks a frightening pass rush, so even the addition of Jaylen Ramsey won’t be enough against New England.

Prediction: Patriots win 24-20

Week 3 – @ New York Jets

The Patriots’ first matchup against the Jets’ running back Aaron Rodgers comes early in the season. As with the Eagles, playing the Jets at this point could be beneficial.

But Rodgers seems more motivated entering the season, and if he has a Brett Favre-esque first season with the Jets, he could start off hot before cooling off late in the season. The Patriots played well against Rodgers last season, nailing him for a win and sweeping the Jets. So I wait close.

Prediction: Patriots lose 20-16

Week 4 – @ Dallas Cowboys

A solid first quarter-ish episode of the season for the Patriots. The Cowboys should still be one of the best teams in football in 2023, even if they aren’t elite, allowing the Patriots to pull off an upset. Still, Dallas has plenty of playmakers on both sides of the ball that will be tough for New England to beat.

Prediction: Patriots lose 27-24

Week 5 – Against the New Orleans Saints

A much-needed home break for a relatively weak Patriots front in Week 5. The Saints have a strong roster, but they had Derek Carr’s number. In his four career games with New England, he threw for just 5.9 yards per attempt, going 1-3 against the Patriots.

Prediction: Patriots win 31-13

Week 6 – @ Las Vegas Raiders

Another easy opponent for the Patriots in Week 6. But I expect the Raiders’ offense to be a closer battle this season with Jimmy Garoppolo at the helm and Jacoby Meyers more likely than Darren Waller. Josh McDaniel has won both games against his former boss in his career, but his defense is still not great.

Prediction: Patriots win 30-24

Week 7 – Against the Buffalo Bills

There’s no way around it, the Bills have owned the Patriots over the past three seasons. The Patriots haven’t found anyone this season who can bridge the gap between the two teams. It could be interesting to see how third-rounder Marte Mapou fares in this matchup, though, if he does play. His athleticism could at least slow down Josh Allen as a runner.

Prediction: Patriots lose 27-21

Week 8 – @ Miami Dolphins

This might be the best time of year for the Patriots to travel to Miami. It’s not too late to deal with the 100-plus degree temperatures in the humidity, though it’s not too late in the season when there’s a huge climate difference between their hometown and Miami.

But the Dolphins are still a talented team. Skilled enough to at least split their meeting with the Patriots this season.

Prediction: Patriots lose 23-17

Week 9 – against the Washington Chiefs

After two straight division losses, the Patriots will have a chance to feast on an unproven quarterback in Week 9. If Sam Howell doesn’t start for the Chiefs, Jacoby Brissett will be under center. So, yes, the Patriots should win this easily.

Prediction: Patriots win 35-10

Week 10 – vs Indianapolis Colts (in Germany)

Similar to the Chiefs, the Colts will play a stop-gap QB (Garder Minshew or Sam Ehlinger) or a starting quarterback (Anthony Richardson) in this game. We saw how well the Patriots played against the league’s lesser QBs last season and we know how well Bill Belichick does against rookie QBs.

Prediction: Patriots win 31-7

11th week – Hello

A good point to pass the time. If they’re 5-5 this season, that might feel like a mini-win as they try to push the post-Thanksgiving stretch.

Week 12 – @ New York Giants

I don’t believe the Giants are repeating what they did last season. I’m not completely sold on Daniel Jones being the franchise quarterback. They didn’t make drastic changes to the skill positions this offseason either, so this is a close win for the Patriots.

Prediction: Patriots win 21-16

Week 13 – Against the Los Angeles Chargers

Justin Herbert has struggled mightily in his two career games against the Patriots, with four interceptions and less than five yards per attempt in two career games. The Chargers certainly have a good team, but Belichick gives New England a clear edge in the coaching battle.

Prediction: Patriots win 23-14

Week 14 – @ Pittsburgh Steelers

This game is a Thursday night battle in a tough road environment. Mike Tomlin always seems like the Steelers play their best ball late in the season.

Prediction: Patriots lose 17-12

Week 15 – Against the Kansas City Chiefs

Super Bowl champions are so talented.

Prediction: Patriots lose 31-16

Week 16 – @ Denver Broncos

This was the most difficult game to predict. Christmas Eve night in a stadium where Belichick’s Patriots have struggled to win. Sean Payton pitched well against the Patriots. But I don’t think Russell Wilson will be in line to make a big difference this season. If he is limited to playing in the pocket, the Patriots should win.

Prediction: Patriots win 17-13

Week 17 – @ Buffalo Bills

The Bills could still be in the mix for home-field advantage in the AFC, giving them fire in what could be a trap for them at the end of the regular season.

Prediction: Patriots lose 28-20

Week 18 – Against the New York Jets

From a roster perspective, I don’t think the Jets are that much better than New England. It will be interesting to see how Rodgers holds up at the end of the season after injuring his thumb last season. I think the Patriots should win at least one game against the Jets this season.

Prediction: Patriots win 24-19

Final Patriots Record: 9-8

Ever since Tom Brady left in 2020, the Patriots’ bread and butter has clearly been winning games against smaller teams with inexperienced coaches and less talented quarterbacks. They only have a few of those games this season, but they have a handful of games against mediocre or good-but-great teams.

New England bolstered its starting lineup this offseason by rehiring Bill O’Brien and filling out the special teams unit, which should help in multiple games after injuries plagued them in similar games this season. If the Patriots win most of those games, they will be in the playoffs.



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