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A powerful brand like Apple Inc. is often able to push past supply shortages, knowing that consumers are willing to wait for its hot products. But as Apple deals with significant iPhone shortages fueled by pandemic-related lockdowns in China, some analysts worry the company won’t be able to recapture all of the desired holiday demand.

Apple AAPL,
+1.64%
warned in early November that it expected iPhone 14 Pro shipments to be affected by the COVID restrictions that have limited production at Foxconn’s Zhengzhou facility. A key debate since then has been whether Apple would simply see demand pushed back to calendar 2023, or whether some consumers would overlook the long wait times and abandon their planned purchase altogether.

“We see fraying demand stemming from the Zhengzhou Foxconn factory shutdown, rather than an outright production delay” in the March quarter, Barclays analyst Tim Long wrote in a note to clients on Sunday.

His industry talks indicate that utilization at the Zhengzhou plant is now up to 30%, up from 20% at the end of November, but “his base case is that utilization will not return to normal until some time [in] at the end of January, at the earliest.”

Long rates the stock an equal weight with a price target of $144.

See also: Qualcomm shares fall as Wells Fargo turns bearish

Oppenheimer analyst Martin Yang has an outperform rating on Apple shares, but he cut his price target to $170 from $190 on concerns related to production constraints. The price target cut comes in conjunction with a reduction in its fiscal 2023 estimates stemming, it said, from “the later-than-expected recovery of iPhone production capacity in China.”

“Our reduced outlook also accounts for the loss of iPhone demand in the [the March quarter] due to supply constraints during the holidays,” Yang wrote. “As a result, we also model more conservative accessories and software and service revenue related to new phone sales.”

While he’s more cautious on that short-term dynamic, he also noted that with the recent easing of China’s zero-COVID policy, he has “more confidence on the accelerated recovery of iPhone capacity in Zhengzhou” and doesn’t expect problems additional production driven by the pandemic. in the new year.

Apple shares are almost flat in midday trading on Monday. The stock has lost 21% over the past 12 months as the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA,
+1.58%
it fell 6% in the same space.

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