Shaq, Charles, Kenny and EJ share their thoughts on the Nuggets-Heat matchup in the 2023 NBA Finals.
We have the top seed for the Larry O’Brien Trophy with the AT&T Play-In Tournament. What a contrast, at least according to the rankings, this matchup of the Nuggets and Heat. None of that matters, this isn’t deep into the postseason. In the NBA Finals, it’s all about shooting, defense, and the guts it takes to win a championship. And based on what we’ve seen of these two teams, they’ll both be on the stage in June.
This is because nuggets and heat have passed through the fire. Denver had to contend with Kevin Durant and Devin Booker in the Western Conference Semifinals, then LeBron James and Anthony Davis for the Western crown.
And Miami? After surviving the playoffs (where Miami trailed the Chicago Bulls late in the fourth quarter), the Heat cut down a pair of sequoias on the Bucks and Celtics, surprising the league each time. The best of all those matches bring a lot of confidence because of the experiences.
Maybe it wasn’t the finale some people wanted, but it was the finale we deserved. The surprising thing about Nuggets-Heat is whether Nikola Jokic or Jimmy Butler will walk away with a ring. There’s a certain glamor to a first championship, especially since no player is guaranteed to make it again.
Important questions are asked and answered over the course of this seven-episode series.
Are there more triples than Jokic? Can Bam Adebayo do much or anything to prevent them? Is the furnace burning in Butler to step up his game? Is Miami cleared to resume basketball activities with Tyler Herro returning from a hand injury after the first playoff game? Will Denver’s shooting efficiency, 49% from the floor and 38% from deep in the 2023 playoffs, challenge Miami’s burnout and smart defense?
With that in mind, let’s stop by 78-year-old Heat boss Pat Riley for another trip to the finish line. Riley reached the NBA Finals 19 times as a player, assistant coach, coach and executive. This means that from 1972, when he first made the Finals (as a reserve player on the Lakers and before they were actually called the NBA Finals) until now, Riley has appeared on average once every 2 1/2 years. .
Of course, that’s 19 more playoff trips than the Nuggets so far.
So it’s Nuggets-Heat, a unique matchup of contrasting styles and histories and individual stars. In its own way, this series should be fun and creative. Historical and memorable? That depends on Jokic and Butler.
Regular season results
Dec. 30: Nuggets 124, Heat 119
Feb. 13: Nuggets 112, Heat 108
3 things to look out for
Miami has found a way to win every round so far. Denver will be his biggest challenge yet — literally.
Aaron Gordon vs Jimmy Butler. The Nuggets are in a weird spot with Butler. He’s the obvious player to worry about, but it could be a tough matchup. Butler is too strong for most guards to handle and too fast for most forwards. More than likely, Denver will once again turn to Gordon for this difficult task, and for good reason. Gordon is Denver’s ace defensive player and brings his size (6-foot-8) and quick pace to the job. He was at a height disadvantage in each series (he faced 7-foot Karl-Anthony Towns in the first round and Durant and LeBron James in consecutive rounds), but he excelled in all of them. Also, Butler doesn’t shoot 3-pointers very often, which really helps because he doesn’t want to stretch Gordon’s defensive perimeter. Of course, what Butler lacks in shooting distance is mid-range and relentless. Best advice for Gordon? Avoid trash talking Butler. This important message comes courtesy of Grant Williams in Boston.
A big step for the uninitiated. The Heat are winning with an underdeveloped group of players. You’ve probably heard this development, oh, a few million times? Gabe Vincent, Duncan Robinson and Max Struss proudly carry the flag for overlooked players everywhere. It’s a great story at this level how these players are not only getting plenty of burn and getting the best but also outperforming other decorated players. A couple of things to note here: These players are now established in the league and therefore the notion that they are Cinderellas is a bit outdated. Even so, they have a little more to prove. This may sound contradictory, but they are about to walk the biggest stage of their lives. Can you continue to defy basketball logic, still hunt for big shots, make big-changing plays and refuse to blink at the bright lights? The NBA Finals has a way of stripping you of your core and defining who you are, and the championship series, in the past, has been too big for players with too many credentials. Miami, these undrafted players carry that chip on their shoulder and refuse to wake up from the dream.
Jamal Murray, Superstar Turn? Murray wants universal acceptance for the game, which he believes deserves a lot of attention, and he’ll get the chance to catch all the flowers. All he needs is to be the best player in this series, win a championship and take the Finals MVP from Nikola Jokic. Is that too much of a question? not really. Murray is riding a big roll right now (27.7 points per game on 48-40-92 shooting splits in the postseason) and is coming off a terrible West Finals run that proved problematic for the Lakers. Murray, like most great players, is comfortable anywhere on the floor and can score multiple ways. His give-and-go chemistry with Jokic is fun to watch and allows Murray to play off the ball and move freely. If he can’t prevent the heat from unraveling, it could spell trouble for Mimi. As Murray showed in the 2023 playoffs, he can go on a tear for longer. He may not be the most gifted player in this series, but he might be the best.
x factor
Erik Spoelstra, Heat. There are various theories regarding the true value of a coach at this level. Do they really make a big difference? Can you affect the outcome of multiple games? That’s hard to measure exactly. It’s a league of players and the superstars decide the championships. But almost everyone on planet basketball believes that Spoelstra will consistently set his team up to win, and that’s all a coach can do. He holds the players—especially the stars—accountable and motivated. He’s not afraid to make lineup changes and is quick to make adjustments (Kyle Lowry is backing up Vincent, and Robinson, and his big contract until recently, was buried on the bench). Spoelstra is not fair on any coach. He is that high in his career. If he wins a championship, especially with this team, there will be no debate about this title being his first without James. Hard to believe, but LeBron once wanted Spoelstra out and Riley in. Riley knew what he had then…and he knew it especially now.
Earlier this season, Erik Spoelstra’s 101st playoff victory passed Larry Brown (100) for 5th all-time.
Known number
119.7 — The Nuggets are averaging 119.7 points per 100 possessions in their 15 playoff games. That’s the most efficient offense a team has had through three rounds of the playoffs in the past six years (since the Cavs posted 122.1 through three rounds in 2017).
They did it against defenses that ranked 10th, seventh and 12th in the regular season. In the conference finals, Denver scored 15.8 more points per 100 possessions (122.3) than the LA Lakers allowed in the first two rounds (106.5).
The Nuggets rank third in effective field goal percentage (55.9%) in these playoffs. They only averaged 11.7 per 100 possessions, down from 14.7 (23rd) in the regular season. The 2.27 assist/turnover ratio is the second-best mark for a playoff team with at least 10 appearances in the past 25 years. (The best mark (2.45) is the 2019 Nuggets and the third best mark (2.22) is the 2021 Nuggets.)
In the regular season, he allowed 111.5 points per 100 possessions/faced two losses (Knicks and Celtics). The Power themselves ranked third in turnovers per game during the regular season. In the game, Jimmy Butler has 10 more steals (35) than anyone else.
But it’s a very different challenge where the Nuggets have unleashed an elite defense through four games.
– John Schuhmann
The choice
Jokic is the owner of a pair of Kia MVP awards and, as his coach will tell you, he has a lot of respect from the basketball world. Most importantly for the Nuggets, he remains a laser champion focused on what he lacks. As “Joker” is making history for the center, his level of play is in the clouds this postseason. His run last month was similar to the one Giannis Antetokounmpo went on two years ago. During that time, Antetokounmpo also bagged a pair of MVPs and will not be denied Larry O’Brien in the 2021 NBA Finals. Both players are foreign born, talented and hungry. It seems destined for Jokic to grab the bronze ring and the Nuggets to drink champagne for the first time in franchise history. The final chapter of 2023 was written in Serbian with a tribute to “Playoff Jimmy Butler”. Capsules in 6.
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Shawn Powell has covered the NBA for over 25 years. You can e-mail him Here, find his archive here And follow him. Twitter.
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