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12/31 Update below. This post was originally published on December 29th

Leaks of the iPhone 15 range have revealed a number of potentially tempting upgrades accompanied by unexpected price hikes. But now a new report claims that Apple may lower prices.

In a blog post, historically reliable industry insider yeux1122 reveals that Apple’s internal analysis of the weak iPhone 14 and iPhone 14 Plus sales concluded that their decline is “well beyond the expected range” — even allowing ongoing shortages of components caused by the pandemic. And as a result, Apple will aggressively price its successors.

“The biggest problem is the price,” reports the insider. This makes sense. The $899 iPhone 14 Plus costs just $100 less than the iPhone 14 Pro, despite having an inferior screen, chipset, camera and older design. With most buyers spreading the purchase costs over a two-year carrier contract, the reason to go Plus over Pro is minimal.

Yeux1122 says that Apple has explored several options to counter this, including narrowing the gap between the standard iPhone 15 and Pro model features, but concluded that the most likely strategy is more aggressive pricing for the standard models.

12/31 Update: Bad news for those hoping that Apple’s possible price cuts for the standard iPhone 15 models could see the Mini form factor return. Ever since yeux1122 revealed Apple’s “aggressive” pricing strategy, a significant conversation has built around how the company would achieve this.

The iPhone 15 Plus price cut has a big impact on the iPhone 15, iPhone 14 (which will likely remain on sale) and even the entry-level iPhone SE. As such, the idea that Apple could simply drop the Plus and release an iPhone 15 Mini below the iPhone 15 makes a lot of sense. This would allow Apple to create a cheaper entry point to the range, widen the price gap on the iPhone 15 Pro models and leave other prices unchanged.

However, AppleLeaksPro has debunked this strategy, declaring“As far as I’m concerned, there are no plans to launch an iPhone 15 mini next year, in case you’re wondering.”

If true, that’s a shame. Not everyone likes big phones, and what Apple achieved in the Mini form was remarkable. Surprisingly poor sales resulted in its cancellation, but market reports claim that iPhone 14 Plus sales are even lower.

This could have opened the door for Apple to offer three iPhone sizes again because those who bought the Mini loved it. It’s hard to make the same argument for the iPhone 14 Plus, where there are Apple and Android alternatives. That said, I suspect it’s much easier to design a smartphone inside a 6.7-inch form factor than a 5.7-inch one.

The obvious move would be to drop the iPhone 15 Plus by $100 to $799, forcing the iPhone 15 to drop to $699. That pushes the iPhone 14 (which will remain on sale) to $599. At that price, Apple risks cannibalizing sales of the $429 iPhone SE, which explains reports last week that the company is considering canceling the 2023 iPhone SE altogether.

Interestingly, a new flagship, the iPhone 15 Ultra, is thought to be even more expensive than the iPhone 14 Pro Max, but yeux1122 also supports this, saying that Apple will also differentiate between it and the iPhone 15 Pro. Yeux1122 cites differences in materials and cameras, which ties into reports that the Ultra has a titanium chassis and dual front-facing cameras.

Ultimately, any talk of a price cut will come as a shock because it flies in the face of multiple leaks saying that Apple will raise, not lower, most iPhone 15 prices. That said, yeux1122 has a track record of the flow of information that goes against the grain.

Notably, in March, the insider disputed claims that the iPhone 14 would have thinner bezels than the iPhone 13 — a week later, leaked schematics showed it. In August, yeux1122 said that iPhone 14 prices would not increase, despite widespread reports, and Apple ultimately froze prices in its largest markets. In September, the publisher also shared iPhone 14 Plus cases that proved the iPhone 14 Max branding rumors up to that point wrong.

So while the iPhone 15 Ultra may end up being the most expensive iPhone ever, yeux1122’s information suggests that buyers of the standard iPhone 15 models will have more money in their accounts than expected.

More at Forbes

MORE FROM FORBESPrices for Apple’s iPhone 15 Ultra 2023 may start at $1,300

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